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发表于 2010-7-20 05:36 PM
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Insomniac market observers everywhere are watching with stunned horror at what is going on in Yen crosses, and thus futures markets. Per preliminary market rumors, the JPY is plunging following BOJ FX intervention, and picking the pockets clean of trend speculators everywhere. Unlike the SNB, which specs have grown to love and ridicule, as every 10 Euro billion CHF intervention attempt is neutralized in the span of hours if not minutes, the BOJ is a far more reputable, and deadly opponent. And with implied cross-asset correlation at 1.000, and the only driver of all risk on or off being the YENXXX carry cross, the plunge in the Japanese currency is forcing a massive squeeze in futures, which were halfway to the moon at last check. This will prove especially painful for those who shorted the market on IBM's and TXN's misses after hours, and went to bed, only to wake up and find themselves with a several million dollar hole to fill, a barrel-sized vat of vaseline to make the pain a little more bearable, and an IOU to the BOJ. Bloomberg was kind enough to share some insight: "The yen declined for a second day against the dollar on speculation Japanese authorities may intervene to weaken the nation’s currency after it climbed to a seven-month high last week. “The strengthening of the yen has added to pressure on the BOJ to implement more reflationary policy,” said Mitul Kotecha, Hong Kong-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB. “The risk is for a shift higher in dollar- yen in coming sessions from oversold levels.”
Readers will recall, that as we pointed out on Friday, the CFTC's COT report indicated that net long positions in the JPY are currently at all time highs. They will also recall our warning that the USD is poised to jump against all such overbought currencies, as Central Banks are just waiting to launch an FX-themes Kristalnacht against the speculators, especially with stress farce results imminent |
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