my 2cent hope this make some sense. =)

knight2017

I think the game is rather obvious here. the market is pulling up to new high really fast from one minute charts. then drop. i don't think the we will drop hard here. b/c institutional is too stuffed so they wont buy to push for the rally, but they cannot afford to a big correction either. so they just try to support the market. however when they have the chance to push higher by the general public they just sell sell sell. so rally to much high from here is as hard as we get a big correction. like 牛蛙 老大说的。等到换手完了， 就 到顶了。 so for bears the only fear should be some irrational buying by retailers to rush the market much high from here.  before that happens I think big correction is really out of the questions and super rally is also not likely. in the meanwhile i think sell on rally is really sensible. also buy dip at the end of day low should also be a good idea since, futures over night always get pumped over night for some reason (actually no other reason but the one). also hold short over night is best meat for MM's.  so bears really need to pay attention to potential news thats could attract general public to pump the market and if you shorted at the range high, i think you are ok but over night holding is still kinda crazy and for bulls who got in at the low if the trading ranged should plenty of opportunity to sell. I hope this helps.

I have some puts what had made me kinda lost, i am declaring my position just do you wont think i am talking nonsense.

源济

CoolMax

照你的意思，过年Funds手里拿满手现金？

joep

Pimco, manager of the largest bond fund, has hired the young boy who used to be the boss of the $700b TARP program to make a push into stocks. Does this mean anything?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... 9iaUo1H4M&pos=7

Diffusion

Pimco, manager of the largest bond fund, has hired the young boy who used to be the boss of the $700b TARP program to make a push into stocks. Does this mean anything?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps ...
joep 发表于 2009-12-7 20:12

Gross是个老狐狸，一个月前还鼓吹大买国债呢。现在又要push into stocks了，真是说一套做一套的典范。

knight2017

照你的意思，过年Funds手里拿满手现金？
CoolMax 发表于 2009-12-7 16:11

buy and hold is not the game right now. when you have money you, go buy, when you have securities,  the only thing you can do is sell. i just don't think sit and wait is what all the funds have in mind right now. I don't know what funds have in mind but I am sure the market is not pushed up by some one with no money. I have read from many places funds are pretty idle right now. But i would also want to consider that the other buying power should from retailers( i only possible source that still have deciding power) but this power can be provoked only by great environments like in 2007 where there was no worries.   all in all, i see a drained market with only one source for the 1200 push but that require nothing short of a miracle.

for short term, the trading range is kinda making sense, cuz sellers are satisfied by the upper bound price and spent money to support current level is important for them as in if some good news come along some sucker will push higher. so they can unload. as in why do fund with do unload at here is,  suppose you have 70% equity and 30% cash, eveyone want to get out at the absolute top.  but they only sell along the way. if they want to raise to 50% cash, indiscriminately dumping 20% equity is huge sell pressure. another 30% probably at 1200.

knight2017

also changing hand are not necessarily bad. if hand changing complete without punishing the market to a low level, when we successfully witched buying power from retailer to institution. if that level is sustained, chasing high from funds can even grant all time high on indices. of course that is under the condition nothing drastic will appear.    if it does, non-coordinated market chaos can beat the market really bad.

But please keep in mind tho market never voluntarily crash, so for people who are look for “P3" please bear in mind a Lehman like news must surface. that is even true in 1929. where every crash is preceded by a system failure,  crash just don't happen like rallies do. so in the meanwhile keep ears open for new in either direction. because if something big is coming up, concerns should be spread before hand. Like we heard lehman had problem before it went under.

AGA7d

有一点很清楚，到现在为止主力还没有逃的意思，看看量就够了。我看的几个房地产股，量只有以前的几分之一。

还有一点，就是逃到哪？拿现金等到下次大跌？我知道的一点点消息是，有的对冲基金也开始买多不动了。

另外，散户一向胆小，市面上经济不好是明摆的，没有道理现在向里冲。有的早就卖完了。有的失业长的把退休帐号的钱都提走了。

到是踏空的基金可能在慢慢买一点。