调查了一下, 读了一些东西, 关于大盘 -- Dafo

renren

调查了一下, 读了一些东西, 关于大盘  时间: 2009-10-01 周四, 下午11:36   

这两天大跌的根本原因: 市场神秘的大手消失了

其实说白了, 经济中问题很多. 公司有问题的很多. 比如AIG/C等这些公司现在本来就是问题公司根本没解决(就是死了也是正常). 空头老大说, 市场至少OVER VALUE40%! 明年很不看好. 天, 那么就是700点附近.

但空头不敢发力的原因是:

1, 政府老操纵经济数据 --- 我已经从上周三嗅觉出政府可能要不那赤裸裸的操纵数据.
2, 前面每到关键位, SP FUTURE都有神秘几十B的大单顶着. 这么大的单就是GS这种黑老大也没这么大的神秘力量. --- 这两天突然发现那种大单不见了. 今天的情况你就见了. (既然GS都没这力量, 那么你能猜出是谁了).

这两天大单为什么消失了? 看看国会在追究MCO, 查FED的帐目, 那边FDIC的钱也不够了.

还有FED支持市场的目的是, 想让问题金融公司筹更多的钱. 从而避免前面市场下跌导致货币危机而全面崩溃. 这些公司, 如GNW(STEC很到做OFFER, 现在已经跌破OFFER的价格)都在很高的价格筹了钱. 筹钱目的达到了, 那么FED和大手就不死支持了. 尤其是最近国会在空头的要求下, 调查那些事情.

更可恶的是拿到钱的公司又要走过去的老路. WS很多机构又开始推MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES. FED最近停买是不是也是停止这些吸血鬼吸血? 因为政府也没钱了. 所以, 国会没钱, 当然要查问题了.

今天GS透风, 明天的JOB数据会非常非常的吓人. 那么明天那只大手会不会出来, 是空头们要试的, 多头也是要看的.

我觉得有几种可能, 在此之前没有人知道HF和那只大手的底线.

可能1, 一种可能直接就打下去了. 因为问题很大. 但打的很深的话, PRIME的房子就会按惠特呢说的掉25%, 那么货币危机都能出来.

可能2, FED和大手手手, 做个空头陷阱, 大势力跌两三周, 或拉来拉去掉, 然后大手再出来, 放出好消息, 把空头杀杀. 再起来一些.

可能3, 政府和大手很快出来. 继续UP TREND. 可能不大.


可以得出的绝对结论是:
1, 政府和大手推的特别高, 是不太现实. 比如推到SP1330以上.
2, 2的可能比较大.
3, 千万别猜, 一定走出来再说.

为此, 多头, 金融股, 等等都应该出掉. 做短线TRADE. 等空头和大手找到一个平衡点最好.

TXK

1# renren
这个听着象天方夜谈。在北美，操纵股市是犯法的，要坐牢。

CoolMax

好，熊熊都跳出来了。

yupek

2# TXK

Is M2M counted as market manipulation?  How do you explain the invisible hand in dafo's post?

TXK

"2, 前面每到关键位, SP FUTURE都有神秘几十B的大单顶着. 这么大的单就是GS这种黑老大也没这么大的神秘力量. --- 这两天突然发现那种大单不见了. 今天的情况你就见了. (既然GS都没这力量, 那么你能猜出是谁了). "

俺没听到过国会批准大奔用M２M去捧SP future。谁能证明上面引言中"神秘几十B的大单顶着"是来自FED 或财政部？只有香港政府敢于用纳税人的钱托股市。在美国，借给他点胆子。

流动的建筑

如果再掉到666，别说几十个B，我相信会有几千个B的单子顶着，呵呵。市场里的确有很多坏人，但每个人都不笨，都是阳谋，看牛看熊罢了。

对 Dafo 非常失望。He has no clue...

flyingdust

要是美国政府能操纵美国股市的话就不会崩盘掉到今年年初的666了。市场的力量是最令人敬畏的，无人能预测也无人能操纵。

yoyo

如果再掉到666，别说几十个B，我相信会有几千个B的单子顶着，呵呵。市场里的确有很多坏人，但每个人都不笨，都是阳谋，看牛看熊罢了。

对 Dafo 非常失望。He has no clue...
流动的建筑 发表于 3-10-2009 17:22

DAFO还是很厉害的说。。。

Diffusion

如果再掉到666，别说几十个B，我相信会有几千个B的单子顶着，呵呵。市场里的确有很多坏人，但每个人都不笨，都是阳谋，看牛看熊罢了。

对 Dafo 非常失望。He has no clue...
流动的建筑 发表于 2009-10-3 17:22

深有同感，Dafo对很多细节非常敏感，观察能力一流。但是解释有点太阴谋论了。阴谋论很有煽动性，但是在股市里玩阴谋，就和跟10个人Texa Hold'em时bluffing一样，一定是第一个出局。

不过想象力丰富也无伤大雅，胡思乱想每个人都有。只要不依此trade就行了。读Dafo的帖子，只要看他注意到了什么就行了。

yupek

看看dividend_growth的数据吧： http://www.hutong9.com/viewthrea ... page%3D1&page=1

Fed输血作重要的武器是MBS，根据这几个月的Fed Balance Sheet (http://www.hutong9.com/viewthrea ... 1&authorid=3321) 变化，Fed大规模注射MBS的日期为 20090311-20090318，20090408-20090415，20090506-20090513，20090708-20090715，20090812-20090819。 20090708-20090715那次注射尤其厉害，正好发生在全球股市gap down的早上，而且正好发生在S&P 200天线的支撑上，这说明Fed那伙人绝对是看图的.

再看看这个讨论：http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... it=Treasury+auction

NewMember

"2, 前面每到关键位, SP FUTURE都有神秘几十B的大单顶着. 这么大的单就是GS这种黑老大也没这么大的神秘力量. --- 这两天突然发现那种大单不见了. 今天的情况你就见了. (既然GS都没这力量, 那么你能猜出是谁了). "

...
TXK 发表于 2009-10-3 16:55

FED's money is not taxpayer's money.  FED is a private institution.

TXK

看看dividend_growth的数据吧： http://www.hutong9.com/viewthrea ... page%3D1&page=1

Fed输血作重要的武器是MBS，根据这几个月的Fed Balance Sheet (http://www.hutong9.com/viewthrea ... 1 ...
yupek 发表于 2009-10-4 01:38

在这个问题上，逻辑恰恰是反过来。FED purchase MBS 是国会决定FED 可动用fund的总额（$300billion？我记不清了）. 通过向银行或金融机构买MBS以达到向市场注入资金的目的。至于哪天买，买多少，是由银行自行决定。所以以上例子只能说"全球股市gap down的早上，而且正好发生在S&P 200天线的支撑上"，是银行急需资金（他们看不看图我不知道），向FED出售MBS换现金。FED在这方面完全是被动。如同药店储存感冒药。某天天量出售量。只能证明市场怕猪瘟，需求量突增。而不能证明药店看图，决定按２００天线向市场发放感冒药。南辕北辙了。

TXK

FED's money is not taxpayer's money.  FED is a private institution.
NewMember 发表于 2009-10-4 01:58

哪个纯Private institution 需要国会批准她的每项行动计划，需要总体任免她的president?

nasd

哪个纯Private institution 需要国会批准她的每项行动计划，需要总体任免她的president?
TXK 发表于 2009-10-4 09:30

看了这位兄弟连续发的几个帖，好心劝一句：先研究后评论对大家都比较好。

TXK

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pf/pdf/pf_1.pdf

The Federal Reserve System is considered to be an independent central bank because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or anyone else in the executive branch of government. The System is, however, subject to oversight by the U.S. Congress.

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is a federal government agency.

Congress chartered the Federal Reserve Banks for a public purpose.

After it pays its expenses, the Federal Reserve turns the rest of its earnings over to the U.S. Treasury.
***********
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.
Today, the Federal Reserve’s duties fall into four general areas:
•        conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employ¬ment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates
•        supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
•        maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
•        providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. gov¬ernment, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation’s payments system

The Federal Reserve System is considered to be an independent central bank because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or anyone else in the executive branch of government. The System is, however, subject to oversight by the U.S. Congress. The Federal Reserve must work within the framework of the overall objectives of economic and financial policy established by the government; therefore, the description of the System as “independent within the government” is more accurate.

Structure of the System
Congress designed the structure of the Federal Reserve System to give it a broad perspective on the economy and on economic activity in all parts of the nation. It is a federal system, composed of a central, governmental agency—the Board of Governors—in Washington, D.C., and twelve re¬gional Federal Reserve Banks. The Board and the Reserve Banks share responsibility for supervising and regulating certain financial institutions and activities, for providing banking services to depository institutions and the federal government, and for ensuring that consumers receive adequate information and fair treatment in their business with the banking system.

Board of Governors
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is a federal government agency. The Board is composed of seven members, who are appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. The full term of a Board member is fourteen years, and the appointments are staggered so that one term expires on January 31 of each even-numbered year. After serving a full term, a Board member may not be reappointed. If a member leaves the Board before his or her term ex¬pires, however, the person appointed and confirmed to serve the remain¬der of the term may later be reappointed to a full term.

Federal Reserve Banks
A network of twelve Federal Reserve Banks and their Branches (twenty¬five as of 2004) carries out a variety of System functions, including oper¬ating a nationwide payments system, distributing the nation’s currency and coin, supervising and regulating member banks and bank holding com¬panies, and serving as banker for the U.S. Treasury.

Congress chartered the Federal Reserve Banks for a public purpose. The Reserve Banks are the operating arms of the central banking system, and they combine both public and private elements in their makeup and orga¬nization. As part of the Federal Reserve System, the Banks are subject to oversight by Congress.

The income of the Federal Reserve System is derived primarily from the interest on U.S. government securities that it has acquired through open market operations. Other major sources of income are the interest on foreign currency investments held by the System; interest on loans to depository institutions; and fees received for services provided to deposi¬tory institutions, such as check clearing, funds transfers, and automated clearinghouse operations.

After it pays its expenses, the Federal Reserve turns the rest of its earn¬ings over to the U.S. Treasury. About 95 percent of the Reserve Banks’ net earnings have been paid into the Treasury since the Federal Reserve System began operations in 1914. (Income and expenses of the Federal Reserve Banks from 1914 to the present are included in the Annual Report of the Board of Governors.) In 2003, the Federal Reserve paid approxi¬mately $22 billion to the Treasury.

ppteam

who is dafo?

Diffusion

who is dafo?
ppteam 发表于 2009-10-4 16:15

http://www.gaofamily.com/viewtopic.php?t=9114&start=2085

louieca

QuickHand

2# TXK
那要看是谁...

dzhxs3

2# TXK


引用街坊的一句名言：too simple, too naive  



谢谢renren转载