The weakness of Elliott Wave Theory

Dahutu

From Michael Gur, a wave expert:



The weakness of the Elliott Wave Theory lies in its rigid rule of five up waves and three down waves. Due to the fact that markets have their own agendas and more often than not refuse to fit the five-up-and-three-down rule, the Elliott Wave Theory has complex rules. This complexity causes inconsistency in wave count, hindsight adjustments, matching of unrelated magnitudes of waves, and complex wave extension. This is a problem of trying to fit a market into the Elliott Wave Theory.
There is no God-given rule that says market has to develop in five waves and the correction has to be in three so as to make the wave count fit one's expectation.
Because the Elliott Wave Theory has major inadequacies, four specific weaknesses manifest themselves in real time trading.
1. wave counts complex and the variations of a wave count abound, leaving a trading with lack of confidence.
2. just as indicators can be curve fit to price data based on hindsight, so can the Elliott Wave counts be curve-fit to charts based on hindsight.
3. Of itself, the Elliott Wave Theory does anticipate support and resistance prices. Therefore, it is not a trading tool in and of itself but a fair tool for organizing a market.
4. Waves are skipped to make the market fit the Elliot Wave Theory.

purety

我觉得EW在长一点的时间段上是有大众心理基础的。
但是要用来标定极短期，很容易费力不讨好。

Dahutu

长周期也同样有问题：

美股今年三月到底反弹时，之前的下降好像还有最后的第五小浪没走，所以许多波浪高手都把当时的反弹看成低级别的小四浪，都在期待小五浪创新低，然而大级别的反弹早就在波浪大师的怀疑中不断上涨。。。到后来都一个一个先后再修正数浪的结果。。
当然，波浪理论有些参考价值，但也仅此而已

menghu

波浪理论本身并没有错，但是一般来说实用性不大，因为具体怎么划分没有个统一的标准，所以最后用的就有点像kd%或者$cpc等等指标了。变成了一个概率问题，当然就漏洞百出了。

CoolMax

金牛银熊

银河金星