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作为长期投资者的小散，买股票最担心的是拿不准公司会不会破产。 长假期没事， 就写个最简单的方法， 来减少踏雷的机会：
1). 计算TL/E (total liabilities/shareholders equity):
a). Go to http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks
b). 输入股票的 Symbol. 譬如: DRYS. Click 左边的 'Financial Statements' link. 在右边选 'Balance Sheet'.
c). 抄下最近 Quarter 的 Total liabilities and Total Equity value, DRYS 的是: 3,193.0 $Mil 和 1,656.2 $mil.
d). TL/E for DRYS 是: 1.93
e). TL/E < 0.5, go to step 2). TLE >= 0.5, go to step 3).
2). 比较 Operating Cash Flow 和 Working Capital.
a). From WIKI:
Operating Cash Flow: cash flow provided by operations or cash flow from operating activities, refers to the amount of cash a company generates from the revenues it brings in, excluding costs associated with long-term investment on capital items or investment in securities
Working Capital: also known as net working capital, is a financial metric which represents operating liquidity available to a business. Along with fixed assets such as plant and equipment, working capital is considered a part of operating capital. It is calculated as current assets minus current liabilities.
b). Go to http://www.morningstar.com/
c). 输入股票的 Symbol. 譬如: DRYS. Click 左边的 'Financial Statements' link. 在右边选 '5-year restated'.
d). Working capital= cash + other current assets - current liability
For DRYS: working capital: 303.0 Mil + 417.0 Mil - 2,525.0 Mil = -1805 Mil
e). Operating cash flow (TTM) 540Mil.
f). Both cash flow and working capital positive: 最好. 公司有钱还债而且在挣钱
Cash flow positive and working capital negative: 公司在挣钱但欠了一屁股的债. 以前的烧钱大户. 现在在和时间赛跑. 希望黄世仁晚点上门. 一般要求年Cash flow 和 working capital 比较接近. 债务太多, 就需要筹钱. 要密切注意 news. 看能不能找到钱
Cash flow negative and working capital positive: 坐吃山空型。在和时间赛跑. 一般要求能烧两年
Cash flow negative and working capital negative: 快要关门型, 在挣扎
g). DRYS 是 'Cash flow positive and working capital negative' 型: 随着经济转好，它的 cash flow 会增加. 但现在债务偏多. 需要找钱
3). 详细分析 (Joseph D. Piotroski's way):
To be continued.
3). 详细分析 (Joseph D. Piotroski's way):
打分制， 用最近十二个月的数据.
A). Profitability:
a). Net Income: After-tax profits. 加一分 如果是 positive。
b). Operating Cash Flow: 加一分 如果是 positive。
c). ROA (Return on Assets): 加一分如果 Net Income Growth 超过 Total Assets growth.
d). Quality of Earnings: 加一分如果 Operating cash flow 超过 Net Income.
B). Debt and capital:
a). Total liabilities to Total Assets: 加一分如果 Total Assets 增长率超过 Total liabilities 增长率
b). Working capital: 减一分如果Working capital 比一年前减少
c). Shares outstanding: 加一分如果 outstanding shared 增长率 < 2%
d). Total Liabilities/EBITDA (Earning before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Appreciation)
<= 5, 加一分, >=8, 减一分, 5~8, 不加不减
e). Total Liabilities/Operating Cash Flow:
< 4, 加一分
C). Operating Efficiency:
a). Gross Margin: 加一分如果 Gross Margin 增加
b). Asset Turnover: 加一分如果 Sales 增长率 > Asset 增长率.
总分小于 5 分的是高危公司。 心脏不好的不要买。 5 分以上好坏不分. 分数和公司好坏没有关系
还是用DRYS 来作为例子:
To be continued.
Go to http://moneycentral.msn.com/home.asp, 输入股票的 Symbol. 譬如 DRYS, Click 左边的 'Financial Results' -> Statements link.
从 Income statement (sales, gross profit, EBITDA, Net Income), balance sheet (Total Assets, Total Liabilities, Current Assets, Current Liabilities, Shares outsdanding) 和 Cash flow (Operating Cash flow) tabs 上抄下数据.
A. Profitability:
a). Net Income: -361.28 $Mil vs 478.33$Mil. 0 分
b). Operating Cash Flow: 540.13$Mil > 0 加1分
c). ROA: Net Income growth (-175%) vs Asset growth (106.56%). 0 分
d). Quality of Earnings: Operating cash flow (540.13 $Mil) > Net Income (-361.28 $Mil), 加1分
B). Debt and capital:
a). Total liabilities to Total Assets: growth of total assets (106.56%) > growth of total liabilities (51.47%), 加1分
b). Working capital: Current ratio (28.53%) < year ago current ratio (63.95%). 0 分
c). Shares outstanding: shares 增长率 92.47%. 0 分
d). Total Liabilities/EBITDA: 4.65<5, 0 分
e). Total Liabilities/Operating Cash Flow: 6.57 > 4, 0 分
C). Operating Efficiency:
a). Gross Margin: 86.22% < 93.28%, 0 分
b). Asset Turnover: sales growth (85.51%) < asset growth(106.56%) , 0 分
总分： 3分
结论： 长期投资的话, ５分以下不考虑. 现在最好远离DRYS。在市场上去找更好的股票。等它趋势扭转后， 在考虑.
一家之言， 请勿砸砖. 呕哈哈哈哈（盗版TM） |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-5-24 10:35 PM
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发表于 2009-7-8 04:46 PM
