CFRA KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.
1:21 pm ET April 13, 2022
We lower our target price by $30 to $145, forward P/E of 13.2x our 2022 EPS, near three-year historical average of 13.4x, and forward price to net tangible book value of 2.1x, near five-year historic average. We lower our 2022 EPS by $1.00 to $11.00 and reduce 2023's by $0.85 to $12.40. JPM post Q1 2022 EPS of $2.63, $0.07 below consensus estimate with in line revenues but higher operating expense and provision for loan losses. Net interest income rose 8% Y/Y with rise in interest rate spread to 1.61% vs. 1.54% and higher loan growth +6%. Consumer net revenue was -2% with consumer banking/lending +8%, home lending -20%, and card & auto -8%. Commercial loans were flat with no distressed industries. Investment banking fees realized -31% Y/Y revenue with M&A advisory +18%, equity underwriting -76%, and debt underwriting -20%. Fixed income trading was -1% and equity markets -7% with lower derivative trading. Regulated CET 1 capital ratio was 12.6% vs. 13.7%, and total capital ratio was 15.7% and 17.2%.
我们将目标价下调 30 美元至 145 美元，远期市盈率为 2022 年每股收益的 13.2 倍，接近 13.4 倍的三年历史平均水平，远期价格与有形净账面价值的比率为 2.1 倍，接近五年历史平均水平。我们将 2022 年的每股收益降低 1.00 美元至 11.00 美元，并将 2023 年的每股收益降低 0.85 美元至 12.40 美元。摩根大通 2022 年第一季度每股收益为 2.63 美元，比市场普遍预期低 0.07 美元，收入符合预期，但运营费用和贷款损失准备金增加。净利息收入同比增长 8%，利差从 1.54% 上升至 1.61%，贷款增长 +6%。消费者净收入为-2%，消费者银行/贷款+8%，家庭贷款-20%，卡和汽车-8%。商业贷款持平，没有陷入困境的行业。投资银行费用实现了 -31% 的 Y/Y 收入，其中并购咨询 +18%，股票承销 -76%，债务承销 -20%。固定收益交易为-1%，股票市场为-7%，衍生品交易较低。受监管的CET 1资本比率分别为12.6%和13.7%，总资本比率分别为15.7%和17.2%。
CFRA MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF DELTA AIR LINES, INC.
3:01 pm ET April 13, 2022
We keep our 12-month target at $55, 9x our 2023 EPS estimate (kept at $6.25; 2022 kept at $2.78), in line with DAL's historical forward P/E average. Q1 EPS of -$1.23 beat consensus by $0.04. Q1 passenger revenues were down 25% vs. Q1 2019 (Y/3Y) due to 17% less capacity flown and an 8 point drop in load factor. This steep drop in revenue combined with high inflation in operating costs (up 7% Y/3Y) to drive a $790M operating loss in Q1. However, as omicron faded early in Q1, DAL was solidly profitable in the month of March. Further, DAL is now predicting Q2 revenues could come in just 3% shy of Q2 2019, despite plans for capacity still down 16%, and it sees Q2 operating margin potentially reaching 14%, which is in line with 2019. This indicates DAL is seeing the robust pent-up demand wave we expected, and that it is easily passing on higher costs to consumers. With shares still down 37% vs. the pre-pandemic high and profits looking set to fully recover over the next one to two years, we maintain our Strong Buy.
我们将 12 个月的目标维持在 55 美元，是我们 2023 年每股收益预期的 9 倍（维持在 6.25 美元；2022 年维持在 2.78 美元），与 DAL 的历史远期市盈率平均水平一致。第一季度每股收益为-1.23 美元，超出市场预期 0.04 美元。与 2019 年第一季度（Y/3Y）相比，第一季度的客运收入下降了 25%，原因是载客量减少了 17%，载客率下降了 8 个百分点。收入的急剧下降加上运营成本的高通胀（同比增长 7%/3Y）导致第一季度的运营亏损达到 7.9 亿美元。然而，随着 omicron 在第一季度初的衰落，DAL 在 3 月份实现了稳定的盈利。此外，DAL 现在预测第二季度收入可能仅比 2019 年第二季度低 3%，尽管产能计划仍下降 16%，并且预计第二季度营业利润率可能达到 14%，与 2019 年持平。这表明 DAL看到我们预期的强劲的被压抑的需求浪潮，并且很容易将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。由于股价仍较疫情前的高位下跌 37%，且未来一到两年利润有望完全恢复，我们维持强力买入。
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发表于 2022-4-13 04:28 PM
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