Minimum pullback target achieved

csw2002

As I wrote before thanksgiving week, my system gave a top signal and I suggested top would arrive after thanksgiving due to holiday low vol that tends to delay any serious selling. Well, it arrived on Black Friday, one day earlier than I expected. Still, I would pat myself on the back for another intermediate term high identified. Today, SPX has pulled back the 5% target I identified in that original post. As subsequent posts in the same thread alluded to, institutions went into distribution and hence I am now looking for at least 2 legs down.

However, short term, I think we are finally going to see some sustainable bounce as many of my intermediate term indicators have reached oversold conditions.

My prop sectors correlations are finally in the buy zone.

My intermediate term breadth indicators are quite oversold.

Institutional buying % has moved away from distribution zone and almost back in the accumulation zone.

We also saw the obvious support at es 455x finally taken out, and taken out decisively. Those buy dippers sold out in the last 15 mins and indices had a flush.

Hence, I am expecting a rally that should peter out by early next week. Initial target 455x, and then 464x and finally (but certainly possible) 470x. Then, I expect another leg down which may or may not make a lower low. However, we should observe considerable positive divergences in breadth, sentiment, institutional buying % against the 1st low. This second low ought to become the intermediate term bottom of the current corrective phase.

hutong123

future11

还要有第二腿？我以为这几天已经有3腿了，第二腿麻烦再通知一下

csw2002

future11 发表于 2021-12-1 09:52 PM
还要有第二腿？我以为这几天已经有3腿了，第二腿麻烦再通知一下

In my book, all we have seen is the volatility within the 1st leg down. All the ups and downs hardly could qualify as 2nd or even 3rd leg.

fortune1212

fortune1212

future11 发表于 2021-12-1 08:52 PM
还要有第二腿？我以为这几天已经有3腿了，第二腿麻烦再通知一下

市场都是大长腿

csw2002

Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version of my sectors correlations indicator chart received less than 100 reads combined. The first version appeared in late Oct during a small retracement when everyone was a bit worried that indices had topped. I showed this prop indicator to be in the buy zone and assured everyone that equity indices ought to rally back. The second version was posted when equity internals started to show deterioration and I said market could be topping, though further data were needed. At that time, this prop indicator was neutral. The third version of this indicator was shown and this indicator was in a strong sell zone as I screamed market top imminent right before thanksgiving week. The fourth version was posted yesterday when I said equity was likely going to at least bounce for a few days and this prop indicator was in the buy zone.

If hardly anyone looks at the all these technical indicators I am posting, I won't bother linking them in. I guess most just want to know whether to "buy" or "sell" and not wanting to know why to "buy" or "sell"

future11

有看的，希望能继续

fortune1212

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-2 06:13 PM
Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version ...

很准！

谢谢！

Pinterest

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-2 06:13 PM
Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version ...

I keep checking your charts. Please continue posting

阿方

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-2 06:13 PM
Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version ...

看了很多遍了，都看不太懂。　

littletiger

the most valuable post of the year.

LIQI

预测很准， 谢谢

pashmina112

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-2 06:13 PM
Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version ...

我都有点开仔细看。 虽然不是很懂， 但是慢慢学到一些东西。 希望大牛接着发类似的帖子， 觉得非常受益。

littletiger

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-2 06:13 PM
Does anyone actually click into my charts? i checked my imgBB account and noticed that the 4 version ...

if yields go down more next week, it will pull down equity market next week. There is liquidity drought due to tax and debt limit until 15th.
The Santa Claus rally will likely be late this year.

csw2002

Quick updates: the followings are excerpts of my wechat posts posted right after market closed

Just some preliminary results - i am still bullish based on what i am seeing.

(1) despite a lower low close on ndx, breadth data are considerably better than wed close for both short term and intermediate term. We now have PD between ndx price and breadth

(2) new lows dropped today in the spx universe across 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200d timeframe despite a considerably lower close vs yesterday

(3) as expected, my gex indicator has moved into the strong buy zone as of Friday's close

Obviously i am still waiting for option and inverse etf data...but so far, data available don't look bearish...in fact, looks bullish to me. Obviously price actions come first. We need price to confirm these indicators

My guess is that we will see es retest today's low on Sunday night and European trading may even see a lower low. However, i think we will reverse back up in the US session. If es can close above 4550 again, it's a confirmation of a good bottom, imho

future11

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-3 07:30 PM
Quick updates: the followings are excerpts of my wechat posts posted right after market closed

Ju ...

等确切消息，希望这一波大跌快点结束

pashmina112

csw2002 发表于 2021-12-3 07:30 PM
Quick updates: the followings are excerpts of my wechat posts posted right after market closed

Ju ...

多谢大牛及时更新！心里面有点底了！非常有帮助的帖子， 希望大牛能常来更新！

littletiger

there will be 2nd down leg after this.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2021-12-4 10:51 AM
there will be 2nd down leg after this.

rebound and pull back until SPX and NDX sync