More Proof of a Bottom

moneymaker

Bottomed.  Sounds familiar?  How many times have we heard of this?  You only need to enter "Cramer calls" and even before you hit the ENTER key, more than 3 million results.  

列宁同志在总结他得了梅毒的教训时痛心地说：忘记过去就意味着背叛。

Thursday, 31 Jul 2008
Stop Trading!: More Proof of a Bottom
Posted By:Tom Brennan

A major hedge fund’s investment in Washington Mutual is just further proof Cramer was right about calling a bottom in this tough market, he said during Thursday’s Stop Trading!.

England’s Toscafund Asset Management bought a 6% “passive “stake in WaMu [WM  0.11    0.005  (+4.76%)   ]. Cramer likened it to the same type of outside-investors support that lifted the market after the savings-and-loan crisis of the early ‘90s. At that time, Citigroup [C  2.97    -0.08  (-2.62%)   ] got a major investment from Prince Alwaleed. Recently, Mubadala Development struck a deal with General Electric [GE  12.69    0.04  (+0.32%)   ].

Cramer also noted that other banks like Merrill Lynch [MER  253.81    -6.19  (-2.38%)   ], Wachovia [WB  5.68    0.14  (+2.53%)   ] and Bank of America [BAC  8.70    -0.23  (-2.58%)   ] were up despite expectations of declines.

“The banks are leading us back up,” he said. “New leadership and I'm liking it. That's what causes a bottom."

What’s Cramer mean by bottom? The Dow will not test the lows it saw on July 15, which his when it dropped below 11,000 for the first time since July 21, 2006.

“That was it,” he said.

Now as the market comes down, investors should buy rather than sell. That’s been the case every time the banks have been hit since mid-July. Cramer said there could be another dip on Friday’s employment number.

“Again, I’m saying, ‘Buy them.’”

Fidelity has been doing its own trading in the financials, upping its positions in American International Group [AIG  1.38  ---  UNCH  (0)   ] and Goldman Sachs [GS  127.08    -1.42  (-1.11%)   ], while completely selling its stake in Citigroup and sharply reducing its JPMorgan Chase [JPM  32.49    -0.51  (-1.55%)   ] holdings. Cramer disagreed with the call on JPM, though he had no problem with Fidelity dumping Citi. AIG’s arguably worse, he said. Cramer’s charitable trust has been a longtime holder of Goldman Sachs.

Cramer said he was disappointed that The Walt Disney Co.’s [DIS  21.94    0.04  (+0.18%)   ] “remarkable quarter” was lost to what he sees is overconcern for advertising revenue declines. The theme park division was up, and Disney’s franchises are great moneymakers.

"This stock is beginning to get beat up too aggressively," he said.

After buyout bids for both Alpha Natural Resources [ANR  23.37    2.89  (+14.11%)   ] and Fording Canadian Coal Trust [FDG  6.27    -0.03  (-0.48%)   ], Walter Industries [WLT  25.70    2.90  (+12.72%)   ] could be next, Cramer said. He called the company the “ideal kind of conglomerate to buy in this environment."

Unilever [UL  19.77    0.31  (+1.59%)   ] is down about 8% on the year, while rival Colgate-Palmolive [CL  61.40    2.40  (+4.07%)   ] is up about 13%. Cramer said the former could be losing market share to the latter.

"I think we might be having a little tug of war,” he said, “that Colgate is winning right now."

Lastly, Cramer pointed out that housing stocks like KB Homes [KBH  17.47    -0.60  (-3.32%)   ], Toll Brothers [TOL  19.47    -0.79  (-3.9%)   ] and Centex [CTX  10.59    -0.35  (-3.2%)   ] are showing at least some signs of strength. The very stocks he feared the most a year about are bottoming, while the commodities are topping.

"And I just can't close my eyes to that sea change," he said.


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