|
|
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-4-25 15:39 编辑
今天发现，政治犯已经刑满释放了。
俺对自己的帖子考了个古，仿佛又回到了那刀光剑影的岁月。。。
近来主要在YAYABAY玩，那儿人少，很清静。这段时间，那儿的人可能有旁观的，但断没有做空的。
万里无云 12/19/08 - SPX 883
我神经错乱了：空方的局势已经危若垒卵了
漫山遍野的熊熊啊。。。。
胡同的这些全职的老大，现在一个个连MIT 的青蛙都赶不上了。
VIX dropped from 56 to 45 this week and SPX rose less than 2%..... This is very interesting..... This is 100% bearish if we are still in a downtrend, but it COULD mean we are in tbe initiation of NEW TREND.
We are going to see how it plays out.....
哈哈。。。 今天老蛇的RISING WEDGE 被挤破了。。。
[灌水] 今天信号小节
[放炮] 这下好了， 周一大跌没悬念了！
[转贴] Not much change… from a big bear
[放炮] [口号]next big drop sector ----oil
[砖头] 俺宣布下周开始俺重新回到熊营，大家周末快乐！
原创] 东方大盘12/19
[转贴] 2009年的经济大萧条 还有什么噩梦会发生呢？
[放炮] 玩完了
灌水] C 未能收在7.5 附近，下周熊多吉少，瞎掰，争个点数，嘻嘻
I will start to look for short entry point today
ＧＭ垃圾还是＄４令人不安．．．ＧＥ呢？
痛打落水狗！
三个字！
[放炮] 太恐怖了
纸交状胆
牛牛没戏了
[原创] XLE is a good candiate to short
[放炮] 自然老大的大盘预测在他自己的教室里
Market may have topped
熊好久没吃肉了。。。
多方逐渐进入状态 12/30/08 - SPX 890
多方在连续多天的尝试之后，终于勃起，虽然阳棒长度略显不足，但抽插极为沉稳有力，让人浮想联翩。
GS borke out, BBY, TOL, JPM strong, semis strong.
可以想象，拿着$139买来的面值为$100的30年国债的秋之皓月们，听者这边娇喘连连，声声嘶，能不心乱？ 心一乱，$139的国债还拿得住吗？
继续密切关注US TREASURY 12/31
这是股市rally真假, rally 多高的试金石。
Today's TLT low 119.85, not bad, let's see the gap can hold or not, if not, downside target to $112, then $100.
if TLT goes down to $100 level, DOW could easily see 10K+.
On the other side, if TLT refuses to fill the gap, big warning for stock.
不知道秋月$122加仓TLT又没有stop out。
Dow will drop another 200 pts spx 927 , 1/7/09
to 8600 level, then bulls and bears re-evaluate the situation.
anybody recommend any short term short? MS?
可能现在到了秋月老师的时间了 1/7/09, spx 927
昨天之前我的想法是，市场BULLISH的走法应当是不回调，直接大阳棒上去。。。昨天很像这种走法，却虎头蛇尾，再加上今天的大甩卖，让我感觉很差。 这个短期的回调其实是所有都在期待的，它很快就发生了，这很危险，市场不会按照多数人的想法走。
我订阅的一个数据，显示相当多的人今天在 BUY THIS DIP.从多方的观点看， 这个比我看到DOW 跌了250+ 更让人恐怖。
Whatever you see it, fundamental, technical and SENTIMENTAL, this correction is far from over yet.
今天胡同的熊气陡然就上去了，熊们也要小心，多方随即杀个200+的回马枪也很有可能(very likely on not that bad initial claim data) 。
Gongrats, 老秋，后边的球就教给你了。希望这轮下去，你能叫个漂漂亮亮的底出来。
想操底的，一定要忍住了啊, 1/13/09,SPX 871 就这样做个底出来，大盘能够走多远？
就是短期，偶也怀疑，能弹多高？
没有再一次 commodity 的大甩卖，这个底出不来。
没有的 VIX SPIKE, 这个底出不来.
VIX down 2.5 pts with SPX barely moved.
TLT confirmed broke out $113.50.
买了USO的，要小心了，目前他是操底团的重仓。
管好自己的手，我们抓个底，就要抓个30-50%的利润出来。一两天的底，我们不抓，太累。
这次回撤和上月中的回撤有什么不同？spx 842, 1/17/09
上月DOW从DEC17TH 9001到DEC29TH 8349 有个回撤，今天DOW收在了那个地点之上 (DIA 低点未破)，又OVERSOLD，似乎应该是一个不错的BUY 的SET UP。。。
上月那次回调，我几乎出在了高点，但在8400 附近徘徊了两天，过了一个空仓的周末，那种怕MISS 掉RALLY的恐惧感比赔钱还难受，，我就迅速的又进去了。
今天同样的在8400附近，我为什么就没有一点儿从新进去的欲望呢？
我比较了一下，同样在8400 附近，今天和上月24TH，29TH的不同：
950 是牛牛的一个比较重大的阶段性目标，上周二SPX 944，不少牛牛在这个位置按计划撤出了战斗。相反，上月SPX 918，牛牛们似乎意犹未尽。
上月8400附近时，TLT $120+，短期性的调正不可避免，另外，$140的30YEAR TREASURY 也让很多旁观者不敢买进。大量从TREASURY 套现的钱成为推动股市继续向上的新鲜力量。现在正好相反，TLT似乎在$112附近获得巩固。
OIH 较DEC29TH 高了10%，XLF 低了7%。
我为什么非揪着OIL的小辫子不放? 我注意到很多NEWSLETTER在说，OIL稳住有利于大盘向上。2004年SPX 最高月收1211，OIH $77, 2004年OIL 的PRICE 是$37-$42，跟现在差不多，也就是说OIL版快整整领先了SPX 50%。这个SPREAD不消除，RALLY 绝对不会持久。
SENTIMETNT，AAII BULL RATIO 已经高达49%。
怎样看待VIX 的SHARP DROP？ VIX DROP 不一定是BEARISH， 但必须有SPX 价格的配合，比方说，SPX SHARP RALL，某个重要阻力位的突破等等。现在这种情况，大盘原地踏步，VIX 空耗能量，就像踩着油门不挂档，等挂上档后，发现油没了。
C is basically selling everything, BAC just got another 100B from FED, JPM down with no reason, PEOPLE, 这里边是四面杀机啊。
[ 本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-1-14 01:19 编辑 ]
还是没忍住 1/15/09, bought at spx 817 ( 大约两星期后，SPX见了871，我4个PICK每一个都+20%，没能及时去利，在SPX830时，获利5%了结。）bought about 80% money:
All longs:
NYX $20.20
NDAQ $20.10
BIDU $107
CME $165
[ 本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-1-15 13
The curse of the DOW theory sell signal 2/2/09 SPX 827
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-2-2 19:16 编辑 http://blog.hutong9.com/space.php?uid=5773&;do=blog&id=3273
I noticed this on Jan. 14th and called caution...., however, however, I just ignored it and i didn't sell into the rally into 870.. I saw my gaining of 20%+ evaporized into 5%.
Now eveybody need set strict stop on long positions, SPX 800 is my bottom and I think it will be broken following DOW. Because these the best 30 best of the best US companies, a falling DOW is of more bearish importance.
GDX,OIH and QQQQ are all holding pretty good, we have seen it before major breakdowns last year, eventually the sectors holding well joined the sell-off.
OIL is probably the sector that will throw SPX off the 800 cliff, technically speaking, USO at $28.40 is at strong support and doji and a good buy, but I feel uneasy I see more and more calls for commodity rally these days, I originally thought the bottom won't come without a sell-off in commodities, I retreated from that stand at a time on inflaction concerns, but I see it quite possible now, there is a lot of complacency build up in the commodity lovers.
Should we not see the SPX fall off 800 this week, I'll definately sell into the BAILOUT rally, I really doubt we would have such a rally.
想抄底的请进
http://hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=33421
有多仓的一定要作好逃跑的准备 2/4/09， SPX 832
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=3384
NEM went down 1.27% and GDX was up 1.40%, NEM usually leads GDX, with GDX was only 6% off the previous high($35.55), NEM is already down 14%+ from the high ($45.55).
Look at how bearish the NEM chart is getting: gap down, right below 200MA and resistance zone, negative divergence, this is a perfect short term short target.
Compared with Jan. 15th, SPX actually dropped from 843 to 838, VIX dropped from 51 to 43 (18%)! 这正是我以前说过得，踩着油门不挂挡,very bearish.
The most bearish thing is XLF missed out in the rally, you may argue fear of nationalization, I think that is a good thing to nationalize C and BAC, but how could GS,JPM and WFC were all down? How come GE is so weak? If this can't ALERT you, 你一定沉醉在YY之中。
我觉得CORBA昨天总结的很好，现在向让的任何RALLY，对多头都是一个GIFT。
贫富差距拉大 2/7/09， SPX845
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-2-7 14:04 编辑
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.php?uid=5773&;do=blog&id=3676
Both NDX and HUI closed above Jan.6th's close when SPX was 66pts higher, OIH ($83.64) is only $3 away from its Jan. 6th close of $86.71, XBD is 4 pts away. All of these 4 indices have been stochastic overbought (80+) and hit or exceeded BB upper limit.
With these riches leading the SPX so much, all others are still struggling, BKX,RTH, TRAN, to name a few, the gap between the riches and poors is getting worse.
The gap between riches and poors will kill any sustained rally, we want to see when the leading sectors start to pullback, how the lagging sectors will react. if we see healthy sector rotation and the gap improves, that probably will substantiate the ideaof rallying to 1000+.
This round of sell-off from SPX 943 - 803 didn't create any true panic and the economic condition just got worse.with CPC 10MA now at Jan. 6th low and the worsening gap, if the market continues to go up on Monday to 880 area, don't get sucked in by theidea of something is finally over, that could be a mid term TOP.
别急着操底奥 2/10/09， SPX827
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-2-10 17:14 编辑
CPC 10MA tip up 了，用老蛇的话就是一个中期的卖出信号了。
TLT，看着像要反转了。 TBT could be a good short at the upper limit of gap.
股帝说，不要PANIC，我看不见太多的PANIC，VIX rose only 3.8pts. 跌得多不等与PANIC。好吧，我给你接着跌，看你PANIC不。
USO，哈哈，见了新低了，OIH 还HOLD得很好，关于穷人和富人的贫富差距，俺以前提过的，贫富悬殊打造不了和谐社会的。我坚信OIH/XLE应该有个比较大的SELL-OFF，那时SPX可能离底就不远了。
Continue to stay 100% cash on mid term account and covered my shorts of SMH and GDX for a respectable gaining, look to short OIH around $81-83 tomorrow, may re-short GDX $34.55-$35.
我可说过得啊，我是一个BULL OF BULLS，俺大部队在旁边等着呢。
Big drop doesn't necessarily warrant any rebound 02/18/09，SPX 788
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=4443
First of all, there is a rumor of support of SPX 780 floating around, my humble opinion is with SPX 810 knocked out, there is no support under 810 that is of any technical significance.
With DOW 100pts away from Nov.21st low, BKX,TRAN setting new low, I see nowhere a rebound is warranted tomorrow but for some wishful thinking,what is warranted, if there is a rebound to the 810 area, you need get out without hesitation.
OIH was down 8.4% today, this is a nice step toward the right direction for a market to bottom out, but it is far from enough. 中海油前些日子在反驳赔本经营的谣言时自漏家底报出$16.8成本价(这也反印了中国公司的幼稚), then the cost for OPEC should be much much lower than $16.8, even if oil drops to $30, these countries still have 150-200% profit margin. OIH/XLE, the previous rally leader, will continue to bring pressure to the market.
Compared with Feb.10th, DOW dropped 330pts and VIX rose only 2 pts, at 48 this is far lower than the 56 on Jan.20th when SPX first hit 810. With DOW 100pts away from the Nov.21st low, lack of panic will only make any rebound short-lived. If you look at the major lows in the past two years, you should doubt that this time there could be no panic because the market has panicked for so long.
I am still 100% in cash after NYX stopped out at $18.70 as planned. I think big sell-off is still ahead.
想抄这个SPX to 810反弹的 02/18/09，SPX 788
趁早死了这条心吧。
The mild rally of SPX to 793 only made VIX down 0.8 from +1.5, more and more people joined the "buy the rebound" crowd.
TRAN is down 61pts as of now, new AL.
更猛烈的大跌看来是如箭在弦了 02/19/08， SPX 778
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=4579
这一波可能比去年11月还猛烈，会不断有人抄底，甚至大量的BEAR也反手作多。
今天OIH/XLE胆敢上涨$3，又一批OIL LOVER将深套其中。
VIX 持续下跌，可能大家都对740作好了准备？所以，只要740见了，740就远远打不住。
SMH今天也被干掉了。
看这样子，短期内重上800实在是勉为其难了。
立场的重大转变 2/20/09，bought at SPX 755 ( I jumped the gun..,正常的话我应该能等到７２０－７４０的，但和胡同众多的熊老大分手的心情太迫切了）
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-2-20 18:21 编辑
今天我在短期和中期的帐户上全仓(100%)作多。
我期待中的前期领涨板块的甩卖一直没有出现，想NDX，OIH/XLE，GDX，在 BKX极度疲弱的情况下，HOLD得的相当好。昨天SMH骗了很多人，起码是把我和酷马骗了。今天我一看NDX/SOX早上的走势，觉得今天变盘的可能性很大。现在QQQQ，OIH/XLE和SMH都处强支撑位。熊熊们既然不能一鼓作气把这些老大退下悬崖，下边就轮到他们反共倒算了。
另外让我对大跌起疑心的是一些好的股票，始终很强，我感受很深，是因为我一直盼他们掉下来买入。MA，CME，GS，BIDU，NDAQ，他们远远高于SPX 820时的低点。真的把我气得够呛。
RTH在这两天DOW大跌200PTS后，还涨了1%，也处于强支撑位。
BKX今天的DOJI不知道可不可以TRUST,BKX的狂跌是由于国有化的不确定性，今天白宫辟谣了。看到这个帖子"
美国将从3月起动用1万亿美元解冻信贷"
这其实和国有化银行是一个效果。现在这个UNCERTAINTY去处后，短期BKX也没有理由无头无脑的跌。
另外，XLF在$6，$7 MARCH 和JUNE有HUGE PUT OI。
还有一个，SENTIMETNT太差。我是一个CONTRARIAN，西化顶风作案。
现在有很多抄底的，但我感到绝大多数只是想抄个反弹. 我感觉，一个很好的中期底部正在SPX760附近形成。
另外，这是我以前伯克中的一段，在现在这种DOOM AND GLOOM的SENTIMENT中，是从另外一个角度看看的时候了。
<!--
关于股市的两条线索，现在的明线就是经济形式持续恶化，无穷多的坏消息，坏ER，熊熊们不能一鼓作气把牛牛退下悬崖，随着市场对这些负面信息的逐渐消化，市场的另一条线索，股市的长期投资价值，将步入主导地位：熊熊的死期临近了。 -->
24小时内第四次吐血奉献 （一片极为精彩的对ＸＬＰ和ＸＬＹ的论述，大家可以到这个LINK去看图 http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=37848）
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-2-22 03:37 编辑
我唯一觉得可怕的是，如果我的猜测是正确的话，怎么这么多老大，锡桶都不支持俺的观点呢？所以我想我应该是错的。
立场的重大转变
Contrarian view: at least America won't crash in March ... 2
再论短期内SPX CRASH的不可能性 - 兼给HQ泼泼冷水 ... 2
I happened to compare the chart between Oct.2002 and Mach.2003 and I can't believe what I see, for those you trade stocks for a while, you know what happened in Mar 2003, Mr.Market shaked everybody off and blast off without looking back
大涨之后，我选择沉默 2/24/09，SPX 778
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=4933
现在还没看出有修改立场的必要。
SPX yesterday closed at 13 year low, 1996-2007 是美国和世界经济快速增长的十年，这个增长是依靠科技进步产生的增长，而这13年的增长数月之内给抹掉了。如果把通货膨胀算上，可能就是15年，20年了。
用这样的推算作股票是可笑的，但这是我胆敢在熊世抓底的基础。
If I dare trust my feeling， 3/2/09， SPX 700本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-3-2 00:04 编辑
I am not saying a tradable short term bottom, or a mid term bottom, I say this bear market is near an end.
Again, the sector internals are not as bearish as SPX 735 number, good stocks are still holding pretty solid, what differentiated this round of sell-off from the one in last Nov. is the imparity betwwen the "good" stocks and "bad" stocks and a strong gold, last Nov.'s sell-off is pervasive across all asset types and all stocks, everything from gold, oil to equity, no matter good or bad stock got sold off and hit new low, this round the sell-off has been highly selective, the same number 740 now underlines a much more bullish sector internals than the same level last Nov.
The imparity between the "good" and "bad" stocks makes it almost impossible for a "syndicated" drop, when good stocks finally try to catch up falling, the money may well flow into the oversold bad stocks. These days we see the relative movement between Gold/GDX and equity market already.
I continue to warn people to keep watch the XLY/XLP divergece, that fact that XLP dropped at a muc h higher rate than XLY. When the bear market just started in March 2000, XLP was going way up while XLY kept going down. In March 2003 we saw similar thing as we saw today about XLY/XLP. This XLY/XLP divergence is clearly tell us, instead of going down to 600,500,400 ( I see somebody mentioned it today) we are setting up something very big on the upside.
The U.S bond market failed to materialize the sharp drop in SPX from 800-735 into any substantial gaining, this is another warning sign for the bears.
Bears argues low CPC doesn't say bottom yet, I keep warn you, when something should happen and it doesn't happen, that thing is UNUSUAL. I attached the CPC readinig around March 10th 2003.
One more thing that substantiates the end of bear market is the doom and gloom sentiment, the classical long term buy and hold strategy is now widely challenged and mocked. 6XX,5XX,4XX calls are everywhere. I believe A's system can make such a call correctly, B's system can make it correctly too, I don't believe all the systems can make such a call correctly at the same time.
I have my deep faith in this contrarian contratutive feeling.
I did jump the gun going full long at 755, but I am not worried about it when everybody is calling the 6XX, instead, I may want to start average down from this level.
What longs need to do now is to re-examine portfolio, make sure your picks can survive the "stress test", my pricinples are:
1> no speculation on problematic stocks, i.e., C,BAC, use < 5% of your money to play.
2> the company must be making money until now.
3> brand name or industry leader.
4> good balance sheet, low debt.
5> prefers etf to individual stocks.
Take this falling knife: COH 3/6， SPX666
Buy COH at $11.95
一唱雄鸡天下白 03/10/09，SPX719，暴涨40点，这篇是我的代表作，http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=39924 有图）
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-3-10 23:25 编辑
我是胡同里为数不多的几个ID之一：看图不多，从不数波。基本上靠GUT FEELING。主要抓中波，辅于少量ST。
今天特大阳棒的直接结果就是在INDU，SPX和COMP 的图上作了一个MACD正分离，好像书院总结过，这个正分离是大底的铁律之一。在我印象中从2006年到现在，几次中期的底都是通过MACD正分离打造出来的。不光是三大指数，几个重要的板块指数都有了MACD正分离，鉴于今天的阳棒是没有半夜鸡叫的情况下，市场自己挺起来的，对中期走势指导意义更大。
这次大跌跟NOV20大跌根本不同在本次大跌是有选择性的，最典型的代表就是XLY和XLP。市场主力在剧烈的下跌过程中，动态的完成下一轮启动的布局。今天XLY 涨了6%，XLP 1.8%，health care 3.8%, 防御性的股票遭到抛售，我一再提醒大家，这个不是熊市的跌法。我在840卖掉的MA，CME，BIDU，NDAQ 等等，再SPX跌了120点之后还比我卖掉的价格高了10-20%，令我扼腕。
TLT，在SPX从826跌到670时几乎没有动，整整150点的下跌，TLT纹丝不动，大家真的要把钱都放到凉席底下了？
现在坚持等底的人，大致这么几点，no syndicated drop, no panic, no vix spike, low cpc.in some of my posts I showed my views about these points, 这些都不是big deal。
我这次当然是做得不好，入场太早，（中间用COH换掉了GE，MARGIN ｂｏｕｇｈｔ ＸＬＦ）但这几天的下跌并没有让我改变原有立场，即市场正在酝酿something very ＢＩＧ, if SPX 670 is not it, it won't be far.
今天的FOLLOWUP貌似有了，3/11/09
MIT 一堆SHORT，PUT的。
ＴＲＡＮ remains strong
多头注意不可轻易获利了结， 3/12/09，SPX750
这事儿说白了，没那么简单。看不清的时候，就别动。
我的目标是820，当然如果个股有了20-30% gaining 也要注意装到口袋里，甚至rotate到别的股票。
我今天只是去掉了20%的马金（XLF for 30% gaining).
支持一下刘MM！3/20/09，TrueContrarian由于正当防卫被封。
本帖最后由 TrueContrarian 于 2009-3-20 19:47 编辑
看到这5道，我觉得不顶一下刘MM就太不人道了，库马的业务水平确实亟需提高。
不要说我总是挑起事端啊，真的是忍无可忍了。下午在班上就看见了，在公司不好法帖，回来竟然还挂在这儿。
手笔真的是很大，5道或4道，咱们下边30年的命运就出来了。
Jesus Christ.
置顶的贴真有水平。
liuyifei 发表于 2009-3-20 01:44 |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-4-25 02:27 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-4-28 09:07 AM