A market shock in the making.

老九

I cleared up my long positions and loaded 40% short positions today.  If you read many market analysis, not the ones in the news media like cnbc, etc., you will find that this rally is entirely man made.  This is even worse than the 1930 rally where at the time, economy is actually getting better.  If you look at the companies earnings, you maybe fooled that many beat the expectation.  But first, it was a lower expactation and the revenue of those companies are horrible.  The earnings are generated by cost cutting and some other accounting tricks.  

The head of NYSE said he saw no real money behind this rally.  He maybe right.  Here are two articles you may want to read:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/20 ... rket-liquidity.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... -is-calpers-selling

This is from one source and I have several friends working at two large US institutions (big fish, with 10-30 billion asset in management).  They are also reducing US equity exposures.  That is part of the reason I said a few days ago that now may be the best time to take profit and not to chase highs.  I may not get the last few percentage points profit, but I will be comfortably sitting and watching how this whole ponzi scheme unfolds.  

Some other stories to refresh everyones memory,  Empty strip mall spaces, square footage wise for Q1, are more than the entire 2008.  Same story for malls.  27 banks failed so far this year, more than the entire year of 2008.  

Read carefully about what the fed is saying about the stress test.  You may have a feeling that most banks may need to raise various amount of capital if conditions worsen.  

Well, enough said.  Let's wait and see.

qiangge

javamood

we know that. we all know that. but market does not turn!

dara

LOL,

You post the same thing every day:

sold 40% position every day.  so it looks like if you bought 10000 share at 3/9, you may have 10000 x(1-40%)^30 = 2 share left.

I guess you can sell 40% shares for 3 more days, and when you sell your last single share, you can claim market is on top.

flyingdust

4# dara

stringzero

ding!

flying_bird

agree with you that the market will ajust sooner or later. But I have been betting adjusting too soon and got some lost on it. Now as a frog and newbie, is it too late to chase downturn when it starts? I guess I will do that, less profit for sure but maybe less risks. what do you think?

BSW

1# 老九

What is the famous saying of John Keynes?

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Maybe Lao Da has a pocket deep enough to stay solvent until the market finally turns rational.  But for most frogs, keep adding to or holding short positions now against the trend might be disastrous.

ra95

Yeah ... I am wondering how come he can always have long position to sell ...

LOL

lucymvz

bullblade

这rally一开始就是man made，为什么选在今天short呢？

raise3

LOL,

You post the same thing every day:

sold 40% position every day.  so it looks like if you bought 10000 share at 3/9, you may have 10000 x(1-40%)^30 = 2 share left.

I guess you can sell 4 ...
dara 发表于 2009-4-24 19:42

老九

Hmm, someone is checking my "fuzzy math".  Well, I will thank him for paying so much attention to my post.  But I believe my math is better than my Chinglish, I would be either a billionare or someone with just a penny with this "fuzzy math".  If you look at this post carefully, I mean carefully, I cleared all of my long and added 40% of free money to short positions as of today.  Well, that said, I am also not sure when this free fall will come.  But my gut feeling is we are really close.  On a safe side, I left some money sitting out, just in case SP500 goes up another 100 points.  

As I have said all along, you have to have patience in this market and only trade with extra money.  If you cannot survive without income for more than 1 year, I would say forget about making a few quick bucks.  Save your money, you may be gobbled up by this market.  Survive is key and wait for the next bull market.  I have seen so many falling heroes.  Being cautious may not get you to super rich, it sure won't leave you with nothing.

I am sure someone will laugh at my post with the SP500 to 400 level prediction.  But with everything that I experienced and heard from older investors, I am 95% sure we will see that.  When, I don't know.  If I knew, I would have been on a private island somewhere in the Caribbean now.

老船

Thanks.

柴禾

支持老九

sds

所以要Trade而不是Invest，情况不妙赶紧跑。

tico

thanks

jackyking

1# 老九


Durable Goods Orders Fall Less than Expected, one of the headlines at cnbc.com today. However, do you really believe it, take a closer look at the report and you will find "...Durable goods orders have now fallen for seven months out of the last eight, the Commerce Department said. The sole rise in that period, in February, has been revised to 2.1 percent from the 3.5 percent previously reported..." What? revised from 3.5% to 2.1%? something isn't right, is it? Will the gov later revise March's number from -0.8% to -@#$%? It's possible.

revolver

Having been monitoring ZeroHedge for quite some time, the interesting thing is that the 2 bloggers are using the character names from the movie Fight Clubhttp://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=1293

Maylin