Reduce your long positions while you can

老九

After weeks of charging, you may see that this rally is coming to an end.  Even "good news" from JPM can not move the market too much.  Many have pointed out that JPM and GS are making money from volatile fixed income trading and it is not sustainable.  JPM also sold some bonds to raise more reserve, as JPM put it, for weathering deepening recession. Non performing loans are up, credit cost is soaring.  A second wave of foreclosures, housing and commercial, is at the doorstep.  Charts are also pointing to a possible end for this run.  The question is how low will it go? I have further reduced my financial ETFs to holding only 30%.  Added more short postions.  By the way, saw somewhere mentioned UBS investment group said their clients were only selling equities.  Maybe some other institutions are quietly dumping their stocks.  Also, that damn stress test really has me on the edge.  Just don't know why they want to release part of it.  My gut feeling is they are trying to hide something.  Remember what happened after Geithner, Bernanke and OB met last weekend? OB came out and gave that "glimmers of hope, but not out of the woods" speech.  I have decided to be only in cash and short positions at the end of April.  Stress test results, only part of it, will be release May 4th.  Good luck to everyone!

n748

why didn't you give up on short? MMs are waiting for you to give up. come on, let's go long!

qiangge

liuhutong

1# 老九


As you were guessing, one of CNBC guests said that the leaked news about stress test is that all 19 banks passed. But they may have passed with different scores. The news seems to be positive not negative though.

tico

1# 老九


As you were guessing, one of CNBC guests said that the leaked news about stress test is that all 19 banks passed. But they may have passed with different scores. The news seems to be po ...
liuhutong 发表于 2009-4-16 22:14

yes, they said no one gets "F". but the difference is some will need more injection, some not. we will see...........

leftright

老九

4# liuhutong


I knew they all passed, but on what condition.  The more stringent one where unemployment is over 10% and housing down another 20?  Passed, but why mentioning some bank needs to raise more capital.  To me, if you need to raise more capital, means you have a chance to go under.  If one can go under, so can others.  But I guess, as FOR NOW, GOVT will try every effort to save those banks.

Maylin

daguai

littlebunny

study hard

nfs

gidar

coexist

RedCedar

jeoabad

lwjnbtx

ding!

dingdingdang

meow

can use OE as direction.

dara

You said it a month ago.  :(13):

johndai

ding