100股DGAZ一天就长一百万？

uddi

最高值250万  不可思议

tcm328pan

老灯

ZT

今天和朋友聊天，听到个挺感概的事儿。

一个人两百块的时候卖空了几百股DGAZF。
现在DGAZF几天内从200块被squeeze一两万，一辈子的积蓄一下子亏光。

讲几点：

1. 千万别做空

做多，最多跌成零，损失掉全部本金。
做空的downside是无限的。小概率事件发生一次，一辈子就完了。
比如这个例子，按买了500股算。做多的话，最多也就损失200*500=10万。不是小钱，但是大到足够买个教训，狠狠记脑子里。
现在做空，一股亏一两万，就这么一个position亏上大几百万，一辈子积蓄就完了。
做空最多收益翻倍，但可以赔上一辈子身家。风险远大于受益，脑子还清醒的人都不该这么玩儿。


2. 敬畏市场，敬畏他人，即使他人是傻逼

我其实很理解这个人的想法。他的想法完全没错：DGAZ是三倍空原油ETN。这些带杠杆的产品都有震荡损耗，长期来讲是要价格一直往下走要归零的。所以每过一段时间就要reverse split并股，把股价攒一攒再大家继续玩。
可是市场不仅仅是理论估值，更重要的是人与人的博弈。他对于人这个不确定因素，没有足够的认识。
昨天收盘，DGAZF的NAV，也就是理论价格是120，昨天收盘收在3000。已经被short squeeze了，今天继续squeeze到一两万。价格越高，越多卖空的人要买股票来平仓，越买不到，导致价格越高。恶性循环。
这种情况就和一大群人，本来啥事没有，忽然一个大呼小叫开始奔跑，大家被吓着了不知道什么情况跟着一起跑，结果发生了严重踩踏一样。
就算你很懂，很清醒，没用的，你得知道别人都在想什么干什么，并且做出正确反应。
李笑来说傻逼的共识也是共识。就是这么个道理。


3. 太小众的东西，不能作为投资

没有市场深度market depth的东西，价格都是胡扯。
就像抛开计量谈毒性都是耍流氓一样。
比如一个股票，在100块有一个万个单子买，99.99又有一万单，99.98又有一万单。。。这就是有market depth。价格跌了，有足够的买盘拖着，不会下滑太快。
同样一个股票，如果100块有2单，50块有1单，10块有2单。一个人market order进去买五手，那一下子全成交了，股价一下子从100跌到10块。这就是market depth不够。价格根本和价值脱钩。
DGAZF也是，自从七月初DGAZ被NYSE delist，变成OTC交易后，ticker变成DGAZF，成交量骤减，几乎看不到量了。这种情况下，谁去挂个两万的钓鱼单，结果一个傻逼market order进去立马成交，价格就成两万了。
太小众，没有量，没有足够买卖盘的东西，不能当投资。哪天大家的兴趣点变了，砸手里，欲哭无泪。
红木家具，邮票，红酒，都是这么个道理。当爱好念想可以，当投资太不靠谱。
就不说哪天战火纷飞了，就说哪天年轻人对邮票不感兴趣了，多珍贵的邮票都是废纸。


4. 别老想着取巧发财，守住钱就不错了

最近大家都过得郁结。股票嘛和赌场差不多，看起来赚钱几率还比赌大小高一些，散户人数创新高，Robinhood就是新赌场。
娱乐是可以，但千万守住底线。
几十万几百万积蓄的普通人，最重要的事情是别犯大错误。
很多人嘴里说着只要比通胀高就好，然后3-4%的回报根本看不上，不到个年化20%提不起兴趣。到各个炒股和期货群去寻求发财机会。
这样的人，即使赢了几把，终归都会还回去。现实版渔夫和金鱼的故事。
只能说可怜人必有可悲之处。
小概率事件发生一次，一生就玩完了。现代社会，意外的风险都可以靠保险转嫁了，自己对自己的钱负责，千万别去自找风险。

ranchgirl

老灯 发表于 2020-8-13 12:57 PM
ZT

今天和朋友聊天，听到个挺感概的事儿。

不懂也不想懂。。。反正不去玩就是，不用管别人把它说得一朵花一样。。。

td2020

老灯 发表于 2020-8-13 10:57 AM
ZT

今天和朋友聊天，听到个挺感概的事儿。

上半年不是有个文学城 ”大牛“ 天天在喊做空 TVIX（那是股价是40-60）， 还说什么这股票迟早会跌到0.（理论上他是对的）。

3月的时候TVIX涨到1100， 翻了30倍， 还不得给short squeeze 清掉。

做空你可能大部分时间没事， 但是一次出事 可能账号就歇菜了。

空空SPY/QQQ之类的是没事，

但是像 TVIX之类的变态， 或者TSLA之类的个股，　风险很回报真的不成比例。赚钱最多赚１００％，亏钱就是无底洞。

deep

老灯 发表于 2020-8-13 12:57 PM
ZT

今天和朋友聊天，听到个挺感概的事儿。

字字如珠玑，句句是箴言

uddi

td2020 发表于 2020-8-13 11:47 AM
上半年不是有个文学城 ”大牛“ 天天在喊做空 TVIX（那是股价是40-60）， 还说什么这股票迟早会跌到0 ...

还不太一样，这个DGAZF是明显人为操纵。 NAV最多只有几百吧。

td2020

uddi 发表于 2020-8-13 12:07 PM
还不太一样，这个DGAZF是明显人为操纵。 NAV最多只有几百吧。

做空就要有被人坑的觉悟。

这个就是做空风险的一部分。 这种事情已经在一些个股身上发生好多次了。

老灯

DGAZF Disaster Strikes As Dying ETN Blows Out Past Real Net Asset Value
10:08 am ET August 13, 2020 (Benzinga)
Another disaster in the world of exchange-traded notes occurred Wednesday when the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN (OTC: DGAZF) entered the day with a net asset value of $121 from Tuesday only to trade as high as $25,000.

What Happened: No, that $25,000 isn't a misprint and, no, that's not supposed to happen with exchange-traded products. First, some quick backstory on DGAZF arrived at this wild place.

Back in June, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), the issuing bank behind the VelocityShares ETNs, announced it was delisting nine of those products from the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange. The old DGAZ being part of that group was largely overlooked because some gold and silver products were included on the list and those are among this year's best-performing commodities.

The usual methodology of delisting is to close an ETF or ETN, but Credit Suisse moved the nine inverse and leveraged ETNs in question to over-the-counter trading, which is akin to allowing the products to die a slow death. With the benefit of hindsight, it's clear DAGZF should have been put out of its misery weeks ago.

“Although it is not currently accelerating the ETNs at its option, Credit Suisse AG continues to have the right to do so, as described in the pricing supplement for the ETNs,” the bank said in a June statement.

Why It's Important: Beyond the fact ETPs aren't supposed to trade tens of thousands of percent above their net asset values, the DGAZF is important for another reason. Fifty-seven delisted but still breathing ETNs with a combined $2.4 billion in assets under management are trading over the counter. That doesn't mean the DGAZF scenario repeat, but it doesn't mean it won't happen again, either.

That's not the only bad news here. It seems Credit Suisse was collect fees by loaning out DGAZF shares to short sellers. This was a $400 product earlier this month, but in the span of a few days, it touched $25,000, potentially creating paper losses of as much as $300 million for short sellers.

Not surprisingly, there's social media chatter that the Swiss bank could face litigation, though disclaimers could make a class action suit tricky for traders.

What's Next: Apparently, Credit Suisse learned its lesson and is accelerating the closure of DGAZF and the eight other ETNs.

“As described in the Pricing Supplement, investors will receive a cash payment per ETN equal to the arithmetic average of the closing indicative values of the ETNs during the accelerated valuation period,” according to the bank. “The accelerated valuation period will be a period of five consecutive index business days, which is expected to be from August 14, 2020 to August 20, 2020. The acceleration date is expected to be August 25, 2020, three business days after the last day of the accelerated valuation period.”

Basically, Credit Suisse is trying to give traders involved with DGAZF a decent exit package, if it's even possible at this point.

Bencat

Taleb

我输的单基本上都是做空输的。 谢谢灯大的教诲

CrisisInvesting

老灯 发表于 2020-8-13 12:57 PM
ZT

今天和朋友聊天，听到个挺感概的事儿。

ranchgirl

Although  I never play 3X stuff, but from this case, I realized the rare possible danger of "market order".

Thanks 楼主， thanks 老灯！