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本帖最后由 novice_trader 于 2017-8-19 04:16 PM 编辑
I know, I know.
You don’t have to tell me, I know we are going to crash on Sunday night. This is the main theme around this weekend. Traders are nervous waiting for some sort of bad news. Anything happen will trigger the crash. Also, we will have Solar Eclipse on Monday, isn’t that wonderful if we have a market crash on Monday（Black Monday because of Solar Eclipse)?
It could happen. However, let’s face some facts:
Astro: The Solar Eclipse has been mainly bullish friendly to the market. Of course, I can’t say that market shall not sell off on Solar Eclipse. But it has been market friendly so far. The inner force is in positive territory.
NYSI/SPX: I have been watching this indicator for a while. Today it finally hit some sort of support. I won’t be surprised to see some bounce in VST.
NYA50R: It continues showing a bullish pattern to 62.5. It means SOONER or later we will rally hard again. Sure, it may continue going lower, but it will be back. As long as you manage your LONG position, you will be fine.
SPXA50R: Similar to NYA50R, it shows a bullish pattern to at least 60+.
VIX: VIX has bearish pattern toward to 12.5 area. However, there is a small bullish pattern to 15 again. So I guess we may re-test low again, then rally hard.
SPX: Small time frame has a bearish pattern to 2320 area. So it matched VIX small bullish pattern.
Pattern Echo: If the pattern repeats, we need one more push up to complete the pattern on daily chart.
So here is my two routes in VST prediction based on those facts and Pattern Echo:
1. From Sunday night to Tuesday, ES will re-test low and rebound back to 2450-60 area. Then on Tuesday, the market will dive hard to 2340 area. That’s the crash case.
2. From Sunday night, ES will re-test rebound and continue going up until reach recently strong resistance 2483.
in addition, we may gap up and go on Sunday, that will void small time frame bearish pattern on ES, but it doesn’t affect the VST predictions.
Of course, I couldn’t rule out that we may just go under 2400 on Sunday night if there some bad news create the panic. But in that case, I personally think it is a great buy for a bounce. I will add more long there. Frankly, I am currently still holding a small long position from 2427.
Have a wonderful weekend! |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-8-19 04:15 PM
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