Thunderpark Market Review - 7/15/2016

thunderpark

7/15/2016
SENTIMENT:  UP         
1)        VOLUME: 今天volume不大，INTRA day 有起伏，说明买方卖方都在观望。活跃的只是些逢高做空和逢低逼空的TRADERS.  周一的尾盘WILL TELL THE TRUTH WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE.

2)        ROBO-TA-STRENGTH： ROBOT 因为技术原因不能作INTRADAY REALTIME ANALYSIS. 我看了一下昨天的报告。大致建议买空债券，黄金，买入石油。 石油黄金我觉得不太有把握。暂时把目标锁定在战略做空债券。 战略就意味着在FED 7/26 MEETING之前循序买进。 土耳其的事把这个事的判断弄复杂了点，需要随机应变。 暂时按计划行事买下第一笔TBT. 如果事态向有利方展，再加仓。


3)        VIX: 还在降。 虽然INTRADAY有较大起伏，但是很WEAK, 利于逼空。

4)        OTHER ASSETS: TLT AND GOLD 下浮， 感觉市场认为FED7月要加息的SPECULATION在升温。
5)        OIL PRICE 又涨了点。 土耳其的事可能有利于油价继续上涨。 不过万一周末就平乱了，就瞎操心了。
6)        今天欧洲和EMERGING MARKET都小幅回撤。但是不起决定大市方向的作用。 看土耳其的事怎么发展了。

RECOMMENDATION:
多头：个人感觉市场有FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTH.  金融科技，HEALTH CARE可能会顶着大市继续走高。看周一盘尾的CONFIRMATION.  (姑且认为市场更适合BUY THE DIPS)
空头： 小心。DATA DISCLOSED SO FAR SUGGEST BETTER ER RESULT AHEAD.  而且看市场目前变化，并不忌讳RATE HIKE.  所以不要太指望大市会因为RATE HIKE EXPECTATION 回撤。作空难度很高。

lakeFJ

abcd

谢谢分享，今天买了点dip。恐慌中。

ContxTrd

georgeyn

源济

谢谢分享，周末愉快！

whysoserious

Bencat

coexist

bokchoy888

秋雨

谢了。

tcm328pan

Thanks

ranchgirl

"暂时把目标锁定在战略做空债券"
someone is doing the opposite. I do not know who is correct.

rightonmoney

ranchgirl

有分歧才有交易。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
不过这回分歧正好比较有趣。

thunderpark

ranchgirl 发表于 2016-7-15 11:37 PM
有分歧才有交易。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
不过这回分歧正好比较有趣。

我主要是基于两点。
1) I ASSUME THE RECENT SURGE OF TLT IS DUE TO THE PANICK FROM BREXIT.
     NOW WHEN THE SITUATION IS STABILIZED.  THAT TRADE WILL BE REVERSED QUICKLY.

2)  THE US ECONOMY, EVEN GERMANY/BRITAIN ECONOMIES ARE WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS.  ALL DATA SHOW GOOD TRACES.
     THIS IS AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY FOR FED TO STEP BACK TO THE RATE-HIKE PATH, WHICH IS WELL DESERVED BASED ON ALL THE DATA  
     SHOWN SO FAR.  EVEN THEY DON'T RAISE THIS TIME, THERE WILL BE HINT LEANING TOWARD RATE-HIKE AND BREXIT-IMPACT IS DEEMED
     OVER-ESTIMATED.  

3) I ASSUME THE TURKEY TURMOIL WILL END THIS WEEKEND. (IF NOT, I MIGHT/MIGHT NOT FOLLOW-UP WITH MY BET)

-----------------------
THE JUDGEMENT ON THE SPY WILL BREAK OUT HERE IS BASED ON THE REASONING BELOW.
GLOBAL MONEY POOL DRAWN DOWN DUE TO THE OIL CRISIS IN 2015. OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES(MID-EAST,CANADA,RUSSIA) WITHDREW CASH FROM THEIR OVERSEA INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS CAUSING LACK OF GAIN ON MARKET INDEXES.  WITH OIL PRICE STABILIZED, THE GLOBAL MONEY POOL STARTS GROWING AGAIN AND EXTRA MONEY STARTS FLOWING INTO THE STOCK MARKET AGAIN. THERE ARE ALSO OTHER REASONS WITH EMPLOYMENT SITUATION IMPROVED GLOBAL-WISE BUT I THINK THE OIL PRICE STABILIZATION IS THE MAJOR GAME CHANGER HERE.

ranchgirl

thunderpark 发表于 2016-7-15 11:45 PM
我主要是基于两点。
1) I ASSUME THE RECENT SURGE OF TLT IS DUE TO THE PANICK FROM BREXIT.
      ...

Thanks for your detailed analysis. I am thinking............

xiangcaohello

thunderpark 发表于 2016-7-15 11:45 PM
我主要是基于两点。
1) I ASSUME THE RECENT SURGE OF TLT IS DUE TO THE PANICK FROM BREXIT.
      ...

Thanks for the great analysis.
If Oil price stabilization is the major game changer, would it be reasonable to say stock market may crash too if crude oil price crash again later this year?

thunderpark

xiangcaohello 发表于 2016-7-16 02:35 PM
Thanks for the great analysis.
If Oil price stabilization is the major game changer, would it be ...

well, if oil indeed crashes later this year, then that's true the market will go with it.

But, it is extremely unlikely.   Because the rigs will only resume activities when there is an obvious profit, otherwise they will stay down.

Also, the oil companies need banks' cash loan to resume activities.  Banks are extremely sensitive for loans in this area at this point.  So, if not making money, there won't be too many more rigs resumed activities due to cash restraints.

Demand and supply will likely be balanced when everybody stays rational on low projection of oil price at this point.

xiangcaohello

thunderpark 发表于 2016-7-16 03:35 PM
well, if oil indeed crashes later this year, then that's true the market will go with it.

But ...