现在唯一低风险可捞的是

板蓝根

GDX and GLD

通货膨胀的压力太大，没卵储都不得不升息。

回溯历史，升息对黄金是利好消息；说明通货膨胀即将失控，而通常美联储的反应都太迟了。

风行过

这点我不完全同意。　已往美联储升息都是因为经济过热通胀增加。　
但这次升息应该不是上面的原因。　
我看对金的作用有可能是负面的。　

bokchoy888

风行过 发表于 2016-5-23 10:26 AM
这点我不完全同意。　已往美联储升息都是因为经济过热通胀增加。　
但这次升息应该不是上面的原因。　
我 ...

chk this out, his view is in the process of from deflation to no deflation to inflation, gold has a chance to go way up.

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &highlight=gold

风行过

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-5-23 10:32 AM
chk this out, his view is in the process of from deflation to no deflation to inflation, gold has  ...

我回去听了多次。

1) he says, Gold the biggest enemy is interest rate. his argument is that bank is not doing anything now, interest rate is not going anywhere, therefore no threat to Gold now. (which is not correct). Bank is trying to raise the interest rate, they seems to want to raise as much as possible and as fast as possible, IF something something permit.

2) He also says, if Bank win, inflation, therefore gold going up. But, bank's goal here is raise some inflation, but not too much inflation, Bank want controlled inflation, my understand. Bank want some inflation to heat up the economy but not going to let inflation run out of hand to cause too much heat in the economy. other way to say, bank do not want too much inflation, therefore you will not see the inflation to run up to cause gold goes up drastically.

3) He says, if bank lost, panic, then gold goes up to the roof. I agree with this scenario.



so overall, Bank action on 1) is against gold to go higher. bank's action on 2) not many people understand how it can happens. The conventional economy is that after you have an inflation, then you will see bank raise the rate to cool off the economy. Now what we are doing is, we have not seen the heat up of the economy, but we are raising the rate trying to fight to inflation?! Ha. How can this happens. Raise the interest rate now, normally will kill the economy right away.

But you tell me Fed with so many Nobel laureates that they do not understand this basic concept?!

bokchoy888

风行过 发表于 2016-5-23 01:52 PM
我回去听了多次。

1) he says, Gold the biggest enemy is interest rate. his argument is that bank ...

he also mentioned if gold goes below 1200, then he will doubt the bullish case on gold, I will watch this 1200 level closely. And, the other point he said if that after years of printing, it will eventually lead to inflation. I hope and watch this correction to happen.

风行过

“And, the other point he said if that after years of printing, it will eventually lead to inflation. I hope and watch this correction to happen. ”

yes, this is another point that I do not totally understood as well. In normal situation, that is going to happen. But It DID NOT. so what happens, why?

My guess is those printed money, is not in U.S. consumer market, so you do not see U.S. inflation. But where do all those money go? China? South America? Someone understand this please explain to me.