SPX 2016-02-05

austinjoe

High level 中枢 above SPX 2000 as shown in the Jan 09, 2015 chart:

Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3. Purple box on chart.

30F zone  1993.2 [2003.9, 2068.5] 2082.9, green box on the chart.

Using 同级别分解, SPX has made 9 1F 走势 ( 15 --> 24) complete the drop from 2015-12-29 SPX 2081 to 2016-01-20 1812. SPX starts oversold bounce from 24 -- 1812.

As stated last weekend posts -- "1948/1950 would be strong resist for next Monday, it's also 50% fib retrace for 15 --> 24 drop." SPX end its oversold bounce at Monday HOD 1947.2 (29). This 5F oversold bounce is made by 5 1F 走势 that formed a 5F中枢 1873 [1876, 1909] 1917.

Here is the beauty of 缠论 on why 1947.2 is the turning point -- a classic example on 区间套:

1> 30F盘整背驰 (15 --> 24 vs 24 --> 29).   9 1F 走势 ( 18 --> 27) could build a 30F zone 1812 [1879, 1917] 1950. This 30F zone will put a big burden for either Bear or BULL to escape.
2> 5F盘整背驰 (24 --> 25 vs 28 --> 29).  3 1F 走势 ( 25 / 26 27 ) formed a a 5F zone.
3> 1F 趋势背驰 ( 28 --> 29 is 2 中枢 1F up trend, it did not generate a 3rd buy to end 2rd 1F中枢, but rather gap down Tues with morning bouncing high 1918.6 as a 3rd sell to end 1F走势).

From 1947.2, SPX starts a 5F down move, minimum is 3 1F走势, 1947.2 => 1872.23 => 1927.35 => Friday close 1880.02 ( NOTE this 3rd 1F走势 has not finished yet, but it does have 2 1F中枢 formed).

Now it's time to test Bear strength now, just as last weekend for Bull:

1> To void 30F盘整背驰, the drop from 1847.2 has to beat 15 --> 24, SPX 270 points drop within 14 trading days. Bear has next 2 weeks to hit 1577, not likely IMHO.
2> To void 5F盘整背驰, the drop from 1927.35 has to beat 24 --> 25, SPX must hit 1834 by Monday 11:30am EST.
3> To void  1F 趋势背驰, assuming SPX will drop from Friday close 1880, it needs to hit 1844 by Monday 11:30am EST. If gap up Monday, use 5min chart local top to adjust 36 points SPX drop within 2 Hrs.

Hence Monday 11:30am EST 1834/1844 is test for Bear, if it could not show its strength. It's time to switch from Bear to Bull as new 1F up move will start, the target is last 1F中枢  1872.65 [1880.47, 1880.76] 1891.97.

For Bear to continue south bound, it needs to make a 3rd sell on 1F zone [1880.47, 1880.76], and drop bellow 1834 by listed time.

austinjoe

My wild guess for next Monday play script, gap down under 1850/1860, bounce up to 1880 area and turn down 187x to test low, either HL or marginal low, then start extreme oversold bounce up, target 50-60 points rise. This is NOT invest guide, just guess work -- YMYD.

NOTE, for next 1F up move, SPX has to face same challenge as the rising from 1874 to 1947. It needs to benchmark 24 => 25 rise on 5F zone,  and benchmark 17 => 18 down on 30F zone. SPX is constrained by 30F zone 1812 [1879, 1917] 1950 and swing around [1879, 1917] until either Bull or Bear could decisively break out.

novice_trader

austinjoe

Bear voided the 1F 趋势背驰 on 2nd zone. ES has formed 3rd 1F zone in 1846.5 -- 1855.25. Watch for 1F 趋势背驰 on this 3rd 1F zone.

The 5F & 30F 盘整背驰 still needs to Bear to work hard to void out. If SPX turn down 1852 and made either LL or marginal low, as long it's above 1828. It's a buy for new 1F up move.

austinjoe

Bull is weak, the 1F up from 1828 is 7 1F 线段 (last one not ended yet) all overlap together, combine with yesterday 2 1F 线段. SPX has formed 1 5F zone [1835, 1848], the nearest 1F zone is [1840, 1861]. Wait for either 3rd Buy / Sell for break out.

捷思

austinjoe

1F zone [1822.15, 1823.52], after that SPX swing around it with 4 1F 线段 ( the last one is not finished) -- down / up / down / up.

Tomorrow is key day to watch:

1> If 3rd buy above 1823.52, then today low SPX 1810.1 is end of 1F 走势 and could mark as 34.
2> If 3rd sell under 1822.15. then mind 1F 趋势背驰 as the drop from 33 SPX 1882 has 2 1F zone now. Considering 5F盘整背驰 , Bear needs to drop SPX to 1780 by 14:30 EST to beat 31=>32, Otherwise it's Bull counter attack time.

Next 1F up, from 34 => 35 needs check 30 SPX 1872, is 35 could not hit 1872, then it would be 5F 3rd sell.