小学生的 ES 作业 (1/6/2016)

HappyMoney

ES was bought back up in the late afternoon for 3 days in a row now. I would guess it might have something to do with the new money in the new year. But that actually not very good for the bulls. The bulls need a very oversold condition to create a real bounce which could last a few days. The late afternoon buying only balance some intraday short inventory, and consumed the short covering pressure. I think the bottom is not in yet. A good bottom should be more oversold than this.

But on the other hand, SPX is down 2.63% for the year, even though this year only had 3 trading days so far. The possibility of some kind of bounce is there. To press short at this level is also not very safe for short term trade. It is better to short on bounces, if there is one. Here are some levels could try short: ES 2009~2014, 2022~2025, 2030~2034. But if ES goes below today low 1970.5, it could target 1957.

ES trade tomorrow:
·         Trend is clearly down. But bias is neutral for tomorrow.
·         ES need to stay above 1970.5. Above 1995.5 could squeeze some short covering. Next resistance is 2011~2014.25.
·         At this stage, it seems getting harder and harder to fill the 1/4 gap. But 2009~2014 is possible.
·         Fail to get above 1995 is neutral to negative. Below 1970.5 could target 1957 in the short term.

源济

shibainu

Jeff

HappyMoney

ES went well below 1957 overnight. My next downside support is around 1895. Before that, all bounced could be sold.

The trend is clearly down. We are in a bear market.

acoust