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发表于 2008-10-27 10:53 PM
Me, exhausted? Are you kidding? I look like a trashed banana skin. But the exhaustion the title of this post refers to is another one: the downtrend. Early today everything seemed to be heading for the crash I predicted over the weekend - which got me the 95th place in the list of most read posts on Saturday - but right before the opening the futures didn’t seem to support my outlook. SPY/SPX did open weaker, but not much into the day they managed a reaction, which prompted me to cover my position with a reasonable profit, but I had to postpone building the swimming pool in my backyard. Then I sit aside trying to figure out what is going on in the market, until I saw this:
(while I was capturing this second chart, SPY went further down, closer to 10/10 bottom, once again)
And a closer look:
Here’s my conclusions:
SPX/SPY broke the symmetrical triangle (in blue) support trendline and, after reacting and closing back above it, the next day it closed below it for the first time (Friday). The fact that a reaction occurred and prices went back inside the triangle proves that equities are reaching attractive prices and bargain hunters are starting to show up (Triangles are all about that).
Second, triangles are known also as figures that appear at the very last stages of a trend. This means, we are close to a bottom.
Third. Looks like that, once the blue support trendline was broken, SPX/SPY started to develop another triangle, a smaller one, more like a Descending Triangle. Same conclusion here, in another scale: we are closer to a bottom.
My outlook basically continues the same, we seem to be heading to a selloff towards SPX 750, and it might happen inside the time window between today and Thursday. Most probably tomorrow.
In any case, trend remains well down.
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