Market View Update ( 10/14/08) by Waveplaye

chinapg

2008-10-14 11:49:04

  TED Spread still remains high,  Today Ted spread kept 431 base points. Credit Market still frozen.
It is likely market will pull back in next few days.

当 TED Spread 还把持在高位时，任何 Rally 都将是短命的。

VIX  不单峰。还会有一个次高的峰，预示着今后几天市场仍有较大的下降空间。

在这个时候， 空头，多头都要小心。 但近期对空头有利。

JM2C

xiaobailong

这个TED spread对当天有用还是几天都有效啊？我在另一个网站也看见有人说TED spread涨了，不好。

chinapg

是不好, 每天都有不同的数据, 看了LINK吧, 我也不懂它.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

real time info:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/26905693

QuickHand

smartll

恐慌小猪

coexist

猪了那么多钱, 还这么高,

aght

chinapg

什么是 TED SPREAD ？ （图）

2008-10-14 16:14:46

Many people ask me what is TED SPREAD?  Where to get Ted spread quote.  From here you can get most of the answers. Hope this will be helpful.

What is TED SPREAD?

The TED spread is the difference between three-month LIBOR (the London Inter Bank Offered Rate) and three-month US Treasury bills

The 3-month Treasury is virtually risk-free (backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government), while lending money to banks can be hazardous to your bottom line. Those who lend to banks deserve something in return for taking on that risk – a premium above what they would have earned by buying Treasuries. That premium is called the TED spread.

Where to find TED SPREAD Chart?

Here is the link for TED SPREAD quote and daily chart:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

(Chart at the below)

Why TED SPREAD is so important?

There are more than 45 Trilling capitals lending around Global based on LIBOR rate. That includes Moorgate rate, Home loan, Business loan, Student loan, Car loan, etc. If TED SPREAD remains at high level, business can not get loan from the banks or significantly increase the cost of borrowing, this could seized business or significantly damage the business earning power. Most Companies can not do business with each other. This will cause deep economic recession.

Why TED SPREAD is important to stock market?

The current crisis is a function of tight credit. The focus should be on the TED spread, which directly measures credit conditions and is a widely watched barometer of interbank lending.

Last Friday, the TED spread widened to about 455 basis points, the biggest gap in over a decade. This is a spread that many market observers never envisioned seeing. The TED spread is usually around 50 basis points, but rose above 100 basis during the start of the credit crisis. On Sept. 5, the TED spread was just 104 basis points. The most troubling aspect of this 450 plus spread is the fact that the current TED spread mirrors the spread level before the market crash of 1987.

Why is the TED spread rising?

Banks are not keen to lend money right now, and they are demanding a higher premium to do so. After all, so many financial institutions have fallen by the wayside recently, with new names added to the list daily, and this has severely dampened enthusiasm for lending.

The three-month LIBOR is essentially what banks charge each other to borrow money. The spread also reflects declining yields for three-month treasury bills as investors flee to the safety of treasuries, paying higher prices for the three-month bills and accepting lower yields. As investors flock to ultra-safe government treasury bills, yields have fallen. Also, banks' distrust of lending to each other pushes interbank lending rates up, creating a large spread. The TED spread is a key indicator of risk. A wide spread indicates a bigger aversion to risk and points to evidence of distress in the financial market.

Happy Trading!!

YILAN

Noah

Thanks a lot!

GuoYang

Thanks!

aght

原帖由 chinapg 于 2008-10-14 19:57 发表 什么是 TED SPREAD ？ （图） 2008-10-14 16:14:46 Many people ask me what is T ...

Thanks!

jmchen

great！

Poo

watch TED every day. how can FED get it down?!