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IS CHINA SECRETLY BUYING US TREASURIES?...
Treasury yields continue to drop. Chart 12 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (green bars) falling below their October lows to reach the lowest level since last July. That seems surprising while stocks are rallying and the S&P 500 is at a record high. That has left most analysts (including myself) wondering why that's happening. An interesting article in the Financial Times this morning (by Michael MacKenzie) suggested that China may be behind the Treasury buying. [China is the biggest holder of U.S. debt]. The falling red line in Chart 12 is the Chinese yuan which has fallen sharply since January. It's generally believed that the Chinese central bank deliberately weakened the yuan by building up their reserves of U.S. dollars (by buying dollars). According to the FT, some observers suspect that the Chinese are investing those dollars in Treasury bonds, but are doing so in Europe in order to disguise their purchases. Who knows? That makes as much sense as anything I've heard recently to explain the continuing drop in bond yields and continuing rally in Treasury bond prices.
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