最近的市场挺难缠的

milan1126

短期：

短、中期三种可能的路径，很纠结：

个人倾向于走第二条
中期：

长线：


最近的市场难缠，基本面上政府关门，debt ceiling和QE tapering交织，相当不明朗。标普的走势也是如此，很有可能今天刚分析完明天就被打脸了，所以我只敢在周末说两句，这样至少明天不可能会被打脸 ~

总的来说，我较强的convinction有两点，一是大盘长线日级别牛市没完，所以像这周周二周三那样跌我就抄了走势比SPY强，且基本面让我有信心的强势股；二是大盘在构建日中枢，30分钟级别也总是中枢震荡，所以按5分钟级别的卖点逢高空胜算较高，当然只能打打游击，像这周我周一就cover了之前的short，结果发现放过一大段。。。

austinjoe

Thank you for sharing your view here!

胡同儿串子

忽悠小散市，美债不可能倒，政府迟早开门。。。看第三季ER吧。。。

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2013-10-12 04:03 PM
Thank you for sharing your view here!

You are very welcome~I like your weekly update too.

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2013-10-12 10:43 PM
You are very welcome~I like your weekly update too.

My 2 cents here: on your 4Hr chart, Day 中枢 is formed spy ZD, ZG is [163, 168]. Now is 日级中枢震荡 + 30F中枢震荡 and 5F中枢震荡. And /ES is on the track of your 2nd choice.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2013-10-13 08:00 PM
My 2 cents here: on your 4Hr chart, Day 中枢 is formed spy ZD, ZG is [163, 168]. Now is 日级中枢震 ...

Thanks for your input. As I said, the second path has the highest probability. Strictly speaking, the 日级别中枢 will be formed when the drop from 173.86 becomes 30分级别 drop. Right now it is very very close. Based on the futures movement tonight, the rally from Wednesday will probably grow up to 5分级别 and can end at any time. Only when the 1st path happen will delay the final confirmation of 日中枢.  

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2013-10-13 10:13 PM
Thanks for your input. As I said, the second path has the highest probability. Strictly speaking,  ...

There are 9 5F走势 -- green line from SPY 05/22 169 to 10/09 164.5 from on 4Hr chart. It's enough to form Day中枢.

Why wait for the drop from 173.86 to grow to 30F? Unless you take the rise from 06/24 SPY 156 to 08/05 SPY 171 as only 1 5F走势 instead of 3 5F走势 as drawed on the 4Hr chart. Then it does need the drop from 173.86 to grow to 30F to confirm the Day中枢.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2013-10-13 11:36 PM
There are 9 5F走势 -- green line from SPY 05/22 169 to 10/09 164.5 from on 4Hr chart. It's enough  ...

I actually take the rise from 156ish to 173.86 as a 30分级别上涨. Then if market chooses path 1, this 30分钟上涨 will continue, since there is no 30分三卖 so far. Then we need one more 30分下跌 to finish the 日中枢~If the market chooses path 2 or 3, we will already be in the 30分下跌, 日中枢 is finalized.

In one word, to end the 日级别上涨 from March, 2009， we will need at least one more 30分级别上涨 after the 30分下跌~

milan1126

Path 1 is still on the table, while path 3 is out.
目前从上周三开始的上涨升级为5分级别，正走第三个1分级别上涨，未见颓势~5分钟级别仍处在盘整背驰段~

milan1126

市场选择了Path 1，因此从6月底开始的30分级别上涨仍未结束。
5分级别上看，如图：

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2013-10-24 08:09 PM
市场选择了Path 1，因此从6月底开始的30分级别上涨仍未结束。
5分级别上看，如图：

Last Friday SPY 174.75 to this Wed 174.18 has 9 1F线段 could form a 5F中枢. The rise from Oct 9 is 2 5F中枢 uptrend now IMO.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2013-10-24 10:05 PM
Last Friday SPY 174.75 to this Wed 174.18 has 9 1F线段 could form a 5F中枢. The rise from Oct 9 is ...

Yep, the second 5分中枢 is formed. It is 5分中枢震荡 now, as I wrote on the note at the right side of the chart. I did not draw the yellow square only because I don't want it mixes with white circle together and makes the chart obscure.