2012-11-16_weekly updates on CHAN chart

austinjoe

5 CHAN charts as of 2012-11-16. Monthly / Weekly / Daily / 10Min / and 1Min chart to show spx 5F drop from 11/06/2012 spx high 1433.38.

Bear did hit Aug 2012 low 1354 as my wild guess last week, next target for bear to take is July low 1325.42.

As I commented on Diffusion's 11/16 复盘 --

"Yep. Today's bounce from 1343 low shows kind of weakness on BULL, bull has made a 1F中枢 3rd buy point @ 1356 13:25EST which I thought could trigger the short squeeze. But bull waste this precious buy point by failing to make a new high 1361.24 at morning and dip back into 1F中枢 area with spx 1351.06. This lack of compulsive upward running makes it more possible to form another 5F中枢 at 1350--1360 area depending next Monday 走势. It's interesting to watch how spx play out next week."

Bull's best case is make a new 5F up 走势 from 1343, but it's weakness most likely will generate a 30F中枢 3rd sell if bull could not break up 1403/1407.

bucks

海边玩人

周线、月线看，这次调整会到800-900之间吧？
大级别上，基本都是盘整走势。

cat2011

austinjoe

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-17 09:08 AM
周线、月线看，这次调整会到800-900之间吧？
大级别上，基本都是盘整走势。

You're right on "大级别上，基本都是盘整走势。" -- If refer to
教你炒股票27： 盘整背驰与历史性底部 (2007-02-02 15:11:27)

SPX is pretty much doomed on this down run. On lesson#27, it starts from 季线图 with 区间套 to 一直分析下去 on 月线、周线、日线等找到最精确的背驰点 -- the historic low for 000002. Now we have high point on spx

heheboy

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-17 10:08 AM
周线、月线看，这次调整会到800-900之间吧？
大级别上，基本都是盘整走势。

this is scary, 800~900 for this down run...

i will sell all positions and close brokerage account as soon as I can.

bucks

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-17 10:08 AM
周线、月线看，这次调整会到800-900之间吧？
大级别上，基本都是盘整走势。

海大方便时，能讲讲为啥吗 ？ 如果是对09年3月以来的牛市调整，FIB62 也只到 970 左右

秋雨

milan1126

请问楼主29-30为什么不是一笔而算作一段？还有34-35怎么看也是只有一笔，可以仅仅算作是对33-34的笔破坏，而不是线段破坏么？

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-17 11:51 PM
请问楼主29-30为什么不是一笔而算作一段？还有34-35怎么看也是只有一笔，可以仅仅算作是对33-34的笔破坏，而 ...

Very good question. When I post daily update, I'm using 1min char from forexpros -- http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-advanced-chart for 1F线段. Please look the details of 29-30 and 33-34-35 on my source.

IMO, the forexpros data is more precise than most other data vendor on spx index. However, it could only allow you view less than 1 and half day 1min data, and I could not download its 1min data for long time CHAN chart analysis. Another good examples are Oct 22 and Nov 7 spx index. Most free data vendor simply use the close of spx from last as opening for next day's opening, which could be a misleading on spx 蜡烛图.

The weekly CHAN chart was drawn by 飞狐软件 -- 1min data is from http://www.stockrageous.com/. I did not pay attention on the spx index data variation on last Friday but rather keeping the 1F线段 from Forexpros. I'm sorry to confuse you on 1F线段: 29-30 and 33-34-35 on the 1min CHAN chart from 飞狐 here. If we keep consistence using Stockrageous spx index data on 飞狐软件chart, then you're absolute right, 29-30是一笔, and 34-35是一笔对33-34的笔破坏. We should use following updated 1min CHAN chart -- note, this one shows more weakness on bull side than the one from Forexpros data. The Forexpros shows spx start a new 5F up 走势 from Friday spx low 1343, but this updated one from Stockrageous data shows that spx is still swing around 1F中枢 27-28-29-30, which means current 5F down 走势 may not be ended yet. SPX could hit 132x before 5F up 走势.

milan1126

Tks for your detail explanation. I never thought about the data issue before. I am always using TOS's chart and from there I saw 29-30 was 一笔 and 34-35 was a 线段破坏 for 33-34. Moreover, even based on Forexpros data, 34-35 still seems like 一笔 since there are only 4 candlesticks from 底分型 to 顶分型 in the 笔 on your chart at around 13:18. What do you think?

befriend

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-18 11:32 AM
Tks for your detail explanation. I never thought about the data issue before. I am always using TOS' ...

Re -- "Moreover, even based on Forexpros data, 34-35 still seems like 一笔 since there are only 4 candlesticks from 底分型 to 顶分型 in the 笔 on your chart at around 13:18. "

No it's 5 K lines if you zoom it out larger enough. The 2nd one is o=h=l=c which could be easily overlooked.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-18 04:46 PM
Re -- "Moreover, even based on Forexpros data, 34-35 still seems like 一笔 since there are only 4  ...

Tks, I get your point. Assuming that 34-35 is the 线段破坏 of 33-34 according to my data or your Stockrageous data, then there are only 3 线段 in the current 1 min 中枢. Should I put 33 as the low for the current 1min 中枢 instead of 35?

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-18 09:15 PM
Tks, I get your point. Assuming that 34-35 is the 线段破坏 of 33-34 according to my data or your S ...

Please check -- 1Min_20121116_New.png, the 1F中枢 I draw is 27-28-29-30, but it could also be viewed using 28-29-30-31. Both has same Max which is 30 -- 1361.40 and ZG is 28 -- 1358.65, Min is 29 -- 1343.35, only slight difference on ZD, first is 27 -- 1348.05  or 2nd one is 31 -- 1351.06. SPX is above the 1F中枢 ZG as Fri close, the n 1358.65 is a test point for spx dip back, if break down, still 1F中枢 swing, otherwise 3rd buy point will show up.

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-18 09:15 PM
Tks, I get your point. Assuming that 34-35 is the 线段破坏 of 33-34 according to my data or your S ...

Please check "海边玩人" post on next week for entertaining here -- both 3rd buy above 1358 and 3rd sell bellow 1351 will show up on this 1F zone.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-18 10:39 PM
Please check "海边玩人" post on next week for entertaining here -- both 3rd buy above 1358 and 3rd ...

Hi, I think the chart below presents my question better.

Which one is ZD? The 线段 low or 笔破坏 low?Tks

austinjoe

milan1126 发表于 2012-11-18 10:46 PM
Hi, I think the chart below presents my question better.

Which one is ZD? The 线段 low or 笔破坏 ...

ZD is 1352 -- 笔破坏 low. Please refer to my post here.

milan1126

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-19 04:31 PM
ZD is 1352 -- 笔破坏 low. Please refer to my post here.

Tks, it is clear enough. But sorry that I actually have several questions about the 10min chart in this post. You said all the 线段 are 1 min 线段 on 10 min chart.
1. How do you come up with the first 5F 中枢 with ZD at 16 and ZG at 17?
2. How do you interprete the move from 1-19 after the 5F 中枢 was formed?
3. Why do you think 15 is 30F 一卖? I know on 1 there was no 1 min 背驰 and the market was driven down by a 1分钟次级别走势 by then.
Tks and I would appreciate your patience.

austinjoe

1. How do you come up with the first 5F 中枢 with ZD at 16 and ZG at 17? ==> 16-17-18-19 up / down / up formed 5F中枢, 1617 is overlap area

2. How do you interprete the move from 1-19 after the 5F 中枢 was formed?  ==> 1-8 is 1中枢 5F down, 8-15 is 1中枢 5F up, 8 is 3rd buy for 30F中枢 formed in Aug 2012 -- [1400,1416], 8 ends the life of this 30F中枢. In fact, if 15 could be 4 points higher than 1, this is a perfect 2 中枢 30F 标准趋势背驰. Anyway 15 ends the 30F level rise from 06/14/2012. that why I called it 30F 一卖. From 15, there will be at least 3 5F走势, down/up/down and it will hit MAX of 30F中枢 formed in Aug 2012 -- refer to my answer to heheboy here.

3. Why do you think 15 is 30F 一卖? I know on 1 there was no 1 min 背驰 and the market was driven down by a 1分钟次级别走势 by then. ==> see above on why 15 is 30F 一卖.
You're right, the end of 1 is due to 5F盘整背驰 on top of 30F 盘整背驰, there is no 1F盘整背驰 nor 1F趋势背驰 but rather 笔背驰 within the 1F 线段.