A trade twittered this as a humor. It somehow resonated with me. (Not that I will give up shorting. But still it hit me, impressed me somehow).
So put it here.
I will short - when the time is right. It's not time yet. We have witnessed the momentum high of the current rally and the price high of this rally will follow. I will wait for a mature consolidation region to form. If I see a false breakout and quick reversal of the range, or a second high with divergent momentum, with accompanying extremely bullish sentiment (by way of VIX falling below 20, and CPC falling below 0.65), I will get short and add to my short when the price exits the consolidation region on the bottom.
No negative divergence yet - which is why I said we have probably had momentum peak of the current rally - meaning momentum has been accompanying this rally. I expect price to continue higher accompanied with increasingly less momentum and eventually a price high with little momentum - then it's time to get short.
If a down trend starts, I prefer to go Bear ETF (FAZ, TZA, SDS...) to avoid stresses by
1. short position, margin calls. Any margin calls make me stresses, frankly.
2. puts position. time value. It's not uncommon that you anticipate correctly but you die before the day comes. any options have time value.
3x ETF is consumptive. But much better than above issues, IMO.
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发表于 2011-10-27 09:58 PM
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