Sth. I wish HTers have a bit time to study

colderdown

http://www.munknee.com/2011/03/n ... 500-is-over-valued/
http://www.multpl.com/
http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/

svntn

回复 colderdown 的帖子

this was one of the reasons I thought 2009/03 was not the real bottom - we never overshoot to the downside. 666 was just a fair value back then. all true market bottoms overshoot, no exception.

coexist

wyjhyd

bigbadwolf

回复 colderdown 的帖子

Compared to 10-yr bond, which is at 2.2% yield, SP500 is a steal with  PE of 19 ( not mention the traditional PE of around 13), plus almost 2% (?) yield.

weigoodone01

umqasr

colderdown

回复 svntn 的帖子

U r bottle half empty kind of guy.

colderdown

回复 bigbadwolf 的帖子

U r bottle half full kind of gal.

bigbadwolf

回复 colderdown 的帖子

Right now, I don't trust TLT, Gold/silver. I want to get loans to buy some investment properties. Stocks, especially energy picks will recover eventually as long as China's economy is still growing.

wnd4

thanks

ultra

看着很吓人呀。

“A more cautionary observation is that every time the P/E10 has fallen from the top to the second quintile, it has ultimately declined to the first quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require an S&P 500 price decline below 540. Of course, a happier alternative would be for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. When might we see the P/E10 bottom? These secular declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as three. The current decline is now in its eleventh year. Was March 2009 the beginning of a secular bull market? Perhaps, but the history of market valuations suggests a cautious perspective.”

svntn

Hello, professional, if you are full of XXX, why you are forced to take a job back to China? taking care of Chinese clients? give me a break. There are over 4000 hedge funds on the street, probably more than the stock tickers. working in one of them means little.

Read0nly

俺时常看到有人高喊按PE算现在的SP如何便宜，股市该如何如何牛，只当个笑话看。用不着细算，只要重新启用M2M规则，一切就得现原形了。

colderdown

回复 svntn 的帖子

Well, I really wish I was a 叫兽。If I am, I will tell my students the best way to see future is studying the history; 2nd, when you do fundermental analysis, one month means nothing and sometime, one yr means nothing. In terms of the reason I may go back China, well, that because I am such a loser and I can't make living in US. I hope this will make you feel better. I understand why you are so "unhappy", maybe this is the reason?
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=132986
http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=127705

Anyway, I think my time at HT is up, even though my skin is much thicker than my brother Xing. He is a great FA guy although I have different fundermental view. It's time for me to rest for some time. There are a lot of great traders here, for new guys in this game, you can learn a lot from them.

bigbadwolf

回复 Read0nly 的帖子

The reality is at this level, the yield with SPY is at 2.17%. Accidentally the 10-yr bond yield is at 2.17%, too. Which type of investment you want to go? I know there is always higher risk associated with the price of a stock.  

svntn

回复 colderdown 的帖子

I certainly like to see you to stay on this board. It is a Chinese forum, it is good for people to share their views. I respect your posts in the past too. I just don't understand why the sudden attack.

As to my record. Of course I lose trades here and there. However, my overall bearish view has never changed. That is the reason when things didn't go right for me, I cut loss and loaded puts immediately without hesitation. I was prepared.

See my other posts if you care.
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=127705

不用等了，没有最后一冲了。1370十年内都再看不到了。II
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 72&fromuid=2048

不用等了，没有最后一冲了。1370十年内都再看不到了。III
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 16&fromuid=2048

Read0nly

bigbadwolf 发表于 2011-8-10 23:46
回复 Read0nly 的帖子

The reality is at this level, the yield with SPY is at 2.17%. Accidentally t ...

当然选择股票，大市牛熊都有挣钱的机会，只要方向作对，回报一点比bonds高。但多数人只会做一个方向，如果未来十年是熊市怎么办？

Read0nly

看不明白，冷唇老大和svntn都是长期看熊的，咋就杠上了？看来俺的智商够低的。
冷老大在美国做为投资商都要自认是loser，俺这样的还活不活了。给俺留条活路行不行？

bigbadwolf

回复 Read0nly 的帖子

Rotation.
If there was a 10-yr bear market, it would be very sad since that would imply a WWIII.