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(My note: When China finishes oil reserve in October, oil price will drop hard. When China stops increasing grain reserve, grain price will fall.)
Chinese hoarding drives up food prices, economist warns
中国储存导致世界粮价暴涨，华尔街经济学家警告说。
BY PAUL VIEIRA, FINANCIAL POST FEBRUARY 14, 2011 COMMENTS (13)
China at present holds 41% of the world’s stockpiles of primary grains – wheat, corn and rice – but consumes just 21% of the global supply.
中国存储了世界41%的基本谷物（小麦、玉米、稻米），但仅仅消费了全球粮食供应的21%
Photograph by: Reuters, Reuters
OTTAWA — China’s propensity to hoard wheat, corn and rice has become an “aggravating concern” in the recent runup in food prices, High Frequency Economics told clients in a note released Monday.
安大略——中国储备粮食的偏好最近大大恶化了全球粮价飚涨，华尔街经济学家在周一发布给客户的文件中发出这一警告
Based on numbers in recent U.S. Department of Agriculture documents, China at present holds 41% of the world’s stockpiles of primary grains – wheat, corn and rice – but consumes just 21% of the global supply.
上述数据是基于美国农业部最近的文件。
“This is an important enough mismatch to affect our view of the world's supply and demand balance for these critical crops,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at the Valhalla, N.Y. consultancy.
纽约华尔街Valhalla公司的首席经济学家Carl Weinberg说，这是对世界关键的谷物供需平衡非常重要的不和谐现象
In an interview, he said the Chinese hoarding wouldn’t be of great concern if grain production were “normal” around the world. But floods in Australia and dry weather in other parts of the world, including China, are squeezing supply.
这位经济学家说，在正常年景下，中国的粮食收储还不值得如此关注。但在澳大利亚大洪水以及世界其它地方干旱天气（包括中国华北的冬旱）绷紧了粮食供应
“But the fact that we are seeing a shortage of grain production in a number of places at once makes this subject a little more politically charged than it otherwise might be,” Mr. Weinberg said. “The Chinese are not causing prices to go up by doing this. The real problem is that it looks as if there will be shortfall of supply from a number of different regions. That’s the biggest factor at work. The hoarding is just an aggravating concern.”
Wheat futures surged Monday morning to US$9.15 a bushel, the highest price since August 2008, on signs political tension in the Middle East and North Africa is spurring governments to boost grain imports. Also, dry weather in a key grain-growing part of China has sparked concerns of further production shortages. Corn prices were also headed higher. Higher food prices, especially for wheat, was a factor in stoking unrest in Egypt that eventually led to the resignation of president Hosni Mubarak.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, chairman of the Group of 20 this year, wants food prices on the agenda as leaders begin to meet, starting this weekend in Paris when G20 finance ministers and central bankers gather.
Based on Mr. Weinberg’s research, China holds one third of the world's wheat stockpiles, but consumes only 17% of total supply. Forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggest global stockpiles will total 82 days of consumption by the end of the current crop year, which is just below the 50-year average of 86 days. But exclude China from the equation and there are enough stockpiles for only 63 days of consumption, which is “very low” by historical norms.
Back in the early 1970s when big food price hikes triggered a decade of global inflation, stockpiles of wheat were in the 56-day range, or not much below where it stands excluding China.
Mr. Weinberg, in his note to clients, said he believes China is overhoarding to ensure enough food is available to ward off a possible political or social crisis should famine suddenly strike.
“Such prudence comes at a cost to the rest of the world, with prices rising for all grains,” he said. “If it were to lower its stockpiles so that they were in line with its consumption, inventories of corn outside China would rise from a paltry 33 days to a more normal 50 days, and perhaps prices would not be rising so fast on world markets.” |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-3-13 07:27 PM
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变色卡
发表于 2011-3-13 07:37 PM
