11/11 大盘分析 - a low vol game day

QQQ

原帖由 sss111222 于 2008-11-11 15:47 发表 破了今天下午的高点就COVER，要么等到850-860再COVER，俺瞎说的

 

you are right

aght

原帖由 sss111222 于 2008-11-11 15:47 发表 破了今天下午的高点就COVER，要么等到850-860再COVER，俺瞎说的

中听！:(13):

天真的冷酷

898... follow NL's path... If we still have two days bearish, 850 is the end point we'll see before the short term rebounce.

QQQ

they tried best push spx up closed above 897

sss111222

原帖由 QQQ 于 2008-11-11 16:02 发表 they tried best push spx up closed above 897

老大，为什么这么说啊？

QQQ

原帖由 dj08 于 2008-11-11 15:55 发表 Q lao da, in your BB trading system, how do you defferentiate a good entry point from washing off? I made a bad entry for QID in today's short squeeze. When the candle 刺穿BB's lower band, I entered ...

 

you use 5 min chart, right? I normally use 50ema as confirmation also. maybe you can upload a chart and mark the entry?

QQQ

原帖由 sss111222 于 2008-11-11 16:07 发表 老大，为什么这么说啊？

 

because 897 line is between bulls and bears. close below 897 leaves high chance to see 840-850 tomorrow. They push up SPX even whth OIL heading down, looks manipulation to me. But as spx closed above 897, this leaves everyone's guess on what will happen tomorrow

gardener2000

CS's tech analysis today

The S&P’s technical position has been left finely balanced, and the 900 area

has clicked in again as a region of support. An attempt at 962 still looks

possible. Above here, look for 977, then 988/90. Only a break above 1008/12,

though, would confirm that the medium-term recovery is back on track, targeting

1060/66. A break below 897/93 would likely lead to a test of 884/81, which we

would look to hold. Failure would warn of a resumption of the broader

downtrend to retest the 825 October low. The VIX posted a lower high and a

lower low, fracturing support at 56, and leaving the index still on course for a

test of 50.75/49. A rally back above 64.78 would signal renewed upward

momentum.

Flat. Retry a long at 884/81, stop/reverse below 880. Reverse longs back to a

short at 962, stop above 966.

Below 880 could see 877/70 next, then 858/54, where we would cover shorts.

sss111222

原帖由 QQQ 于 2008-11-11 16:11 发表   because 897 line is between bulls and bears. close below 897 leaves high chance to see 840-850 tomorrow. They push up SPX even whth OIL heading down, looks manipulation to me. But as spx clo ...

chocolate

原帖由 QQQ 于 2008-11-11 16:11 发表   because 897 line is between bulls and bears. close below 897 leaves high chance to see 840-850 tomorrow. They push up SPX even whth OIL heading down, looks manipulation to me. But as spx clo ...

same feeling, and it could lose 897 after close.

But why GS is so strong today?

dj08

I used 5min and 1 min but most focus on 1 min. The first chart is 1 min chart with the cycle as my entry point. Send is 5min chart. Thanks much.

 

 

1 min QID chart

                                     

5 min QID chart

QQQ

原帖由 chocolate 于 2008-11-11 16:24 发表 same feeling, and it could lose 897 after close.But why GS is so strong today?

 

from 95 to 67 within a week. just can not expect it goes straight down to 50's in 1-2 weeks

benmao

GS is smart MM, so how to avoid getting caught by it like today?

yager

顶老大的强贴，回头研究！

QQQ

原帖由 benmao 于 2008-11-11 16:48 发表 GS is smart MM, so how to avoid getting caught by it like today?

 

use stops is the only way I'd think of, or you can think 30% loss in a week, (30%profit for shorts in a week) is enough to take off some from the table.

also FRE/FNM or any financial related news can spike short covering.

dj08

原帖由 wahaa 于 2008-11-11 16:54 发表 I didn't see a buy singal from MACD at your entry point in your 5-minute chart. Did I missing anything?

 

I usually use 1 min chart and see if candle hit the lower BB band, and whether RSI/stochRSI is oversold to decide if I enter the position. I don't use MACD too much 'cause I think it has delay. I am a new hand, hope to hear from Q da and any neighbors about my mistake. Please point out anything you think of. I'd like to improve. Thanks everyone.

CoolMax

五分钟图上，No Buy Signs at All

 

MA20,MA50死叉

RSI below 50

StochRSI below 50

MO negative

MACD no buy sign

BB 开口

Trendline break down.

 

一分钟图上，一样没有买信号。

[ 本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2008-11-11 17:16 编辑 ]

QQQ

原帖由 dj08 于 2008-11-11 16:35 发表 I used 5min and 1 min but most focus on 1 min. The first chart is 1 min chart with the cycle as my entry point. Send is 5min chart. Thanks much.     12650     &nb ...

 

dj08, let's focus on 5min chart

(1) do you have 50ema in your 5 min chart? that line is important

(2) Your cycle is on 2 red candles. Just by looking at the first red candle body, the biggest red candle since mkt open, after see this candle, it is definitly not a buy long point, in fact it could be a short entry if next candle confirms.

(3) After the first big red candle, BB expension is happing, this is also not a place to buy long at lower BB if BB is quickly widens.

(4) The second red candle completely below the first big red candle, this is actually tells more down side below.

(5) do you have ma7 and ma21? I think at that time, MA is crossing to down side, also not a entry for buy long.

NumberRules

原帖由 dj08 于 2008-11-11 17:12 发表   I usually use 1 min chart and see if candle hit the lower BB band, and whether RSI/stochRSI is oversold to decide if I enter the position. I don't use MACD too much 'cause I think it has del ...

 

sorry, u use it for long? as coolmax and qqq said. beside, speaking from candle pattern, bearish engulfing, not a good sign for long.

 

also, i will recommand use 3 min chart for entrance if you use quotetracker, 1 min chart has too many fault signals as i see it.

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 NumberRules 于 2008-11-11 17:43 编辑 ]