There is still way too much money in the dumb short SH fund. I think we will only get a pullback probably to 2020 and at most to the midpoint of Aug Sept range (roughly 1950). In fact, if we get below 2020, it would be rather bearish - but I wouldn't get too beared up until we breach 1870.
There is no change to SH, SDS and SPXU. However, OEX traders were fairly bullish for the day with OEX PCR adjusted final closing at 0.46 which is a buy.
Apology for the missing update for Friday. We did get another OEX sell signal on Friday after the close with the final OEX PCR final at 2.5. There was no change to all the short funds on Friday. For Monday, OEX traders were short with cash close PCR at 2. The final adjusted number is 1.42 which is neutral. There was some covering in SPXU, no change to SDS but another 12 millions inflow into SH. Looks like the dumb money is going to get some punishment first before we will get some serious decline.
Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 1.3 on 12th Nov. No change to SH, SDS but small inflow to SPXU. This looks to me like the downtrend is just starting. There is hardly any pessimism at all.
OEX PCR final adjusted closed at 1.50 on Friday, neutral. There is no change to SH and SPXU but quite a bit of covering in SDS. I think a short term low is now in after panic set in after the tragic event in Paris. A 2 to 3 day bounce is probably due with an initial target between 2050 and 2065.
OEX PCR adjusted final closed at 1.27 today neutral. SH is flat. However big outflows on SDS and SPXU. I suspect we may get a 1 or 2 days rallies left before we are going back down again to retest the Sunday night low.
OEX Final adjusted closed at 3.27, bearish. In addition, SH saw 39.8 millions outflow, though SDS saw 46.2 millions outflow and SPXU saw 57.9 millions outflow. This implies some strength as well as some weakness for the coming days. My scenario still is a dip to retest last Friday's low (higher probability) or Sunday's low (lower probability) before strengthening for the Thanksgiving rally.
Looks like it's strength first then weakness. Today saw another 12.4 millions outflow on SH. I'd like to see more evidence of dumb short capitulation. Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 0.86 neutral to slightly bullish.
OEX PCR final is 3.93 bearish and 10 day OEX PCR has also moved into the bear side. There is no change to SH. SDS saw 32.1 millions inflow and SPXU saw 15.3 millions inflow. We should pull back from here as both smart money and smart shorts are getting ready for some selling.
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-11-1 02:46 PM
发表于 2015-11-19 11:50 PM
