|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2025-10-29 01:33 PM
|
显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 bokchoy888 于 2025-10-29 01:35 PM 编辑
AI Overview
S&P 500: The Fed Cut Fade (Technical Analysis) (SP500 ...
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged around a 12% gain within 12 months of a rate cut when the market was near an all-time high, with a high percentage of periods showing positive returns. This is because lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs for companies, boost economic activity, and make stocks more attractive compared to bonds. However, there is no guarantee, and the market can experience short-term volatility as it digests the new economic outlook.
Historical context
Average return: In the past, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of about 13% in the 12 months following a rate cut that occurred while the index was near a record high.
Positive returns: In 93% of these historical instances, the market produced positive returns after a rate cut.
Long-term trend: Historically, new all-time highs have signaled potential for further growth, and market corrections of more than 10% are relatively uncommon in the year following a new high.
Potential drivers for a market increase
Lower borrowing costs: A rate cut reduces the cost for companies to borrow money, which can increase their profitability and support stock prices.
Increased economic activity: Lower interest rates can stimulate consumer spending and overall economic growth, which is beneficial for businesses.
Competition with other assets: Lower bond yields can make the returns from stocks more attractive in comparison, driving investment into the stock market.
Potential risks and considerations
Short-term volatility: While the long-term trend is often positive, the market can experience short-term losses as it adjusts to the new economic outlook.
Market expectations: Stock market performance is influenced by future expectations. If the rate cut was already widely anticipated, its impact may be less significant than expected. |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2025-10-29 01:21 PM
发表于 2025-10-29 03:36 PM
