Dumb money vs. smart money

xiaochong

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-15 06:27 PM
Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 2.87 - again in sell territory. OEX PCR has been very bearish all d ...

老大，哪里能看到OEX PCR？ 谢谢！

xiaochong

谢谢老大，另外如何看SH inflow and outflow,也是要订data 吗？

csw2002

OEX Traders have gone bipolar. Today they have stayed bullish all day long, reversing their bearish bets for over a week now. The final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 0.47, well into the buy territory. There is no change to SH, SDS and SPXU. A straight forward reading of this data should indicate further upside as the shorts have either fought the uptrend by buying more shorts or stayed put on their losing bet whereas smart money OEX traders have reversed long again. An alternative reading is that we OEX traders are buying some short term calls but retaining their long term puts as the open interest on puts vs calls remains at a historically elevated level. Hence I retained my shorts with hedges and bought some more hedges to balance my portfolio beta to be approximately -0.25. I am looking to lift my hedge and add to my shorts when conditions become ripe for another trip down.

csw2002

Things are getting stranger by the day. The morning gap down was bought by OEX traders with gusto. The OEX PCR started the day at 0.2 (in extremely bullish territory) and gradually increased as the equity market rallied. It still closed at 0.45 which is still in bullish territory. However, over the next 15 minutes as the cash market was closed, OEX traders bought puts at a frenzied pace to eventualy close PCR at 1.9 - at a slightly bearish to neutral territory. OEX Open Interest PCR remains at historically elevated level. SH saw 5 millions outflow though both SDS and SPXU saw further inflows. I believe a reversal is close at hand and hence started to lift my hedges and may even add additional shorts depending on the circumstances.

csw2002

OEX traders have gone full tilt bearish, with final adjusted closing PCR at 6.9, the highest value for the year. OEX traders have been bearish all day long despite the rally in the opening 1 and half hour and remained bearish throughout. SH saw no change whereas we saw continued inflow into SDS and SPXU. I have fully scaled out of my hedges and are now fully short.

lilili

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-21 02:35 AM
OEX traders have gone full tilt bearish, with final adjusted closing PCR at 6.9, the highest value f ...

great call, many thanks and highly appreciated

georgeyn

Absolutely, great call, thanks

csw2002

OEX PCR closed at 1.33, at a neutral value. However, as reported on Monday, the open interest PCR remains elevated at a historically extreme level. There is no change to SH, SDS and SPXU. I am still holding shorts.

csw2002

What an epic short squeeze. It sure hurt. I closed half of shorts and hedged the rest. OEX traders continued to add to their puts with the final adjusted OEX pcr closing at 1.4. There is no change to SH and SPXU but SDS saw more inflow. If we continue to see strength, I will consider going long. However, I don't like the fact that OEX traders are consistently adding to their puts.

csw2002

Another epic short squeeze. Things now look like what I expected when I started this thread - a fast and furious rally to at least 2040 and possibly to all time high due to record amount of short interest by public that needs to be squeezed. Anyway, I had to cut loss on Friday's gap-up. Ouch, but I get to live to fight another day. OEX PCR was bearish at the start of the day but turned bullish in the afternoon. However, after the cash close, again we saw OEX traders buying puts in frenzied pace and turned the final adjusted reading to 0.91 which is neutral. There is 61 mllions outflow from SH as well as substantial outflow from SDS and SPXU. I still do think we are due a pullback as price spikes (up or down) from news events are usually retraced.

csw2002

Final OEX PCR closed at 0.99,  neutral. However the volume is so small that I wouldn't read too much into it either way. SH data is not available due to a technical problem. I think the market is in wait-and-see mode for FOMC meeting. Best course of action is to stay in cash unless you were long from way down.

csw2002

Final OEX PCR is 3.19, again in very bearish territory. There is no change to SH, SDS and SPXU for the past 2 days. Everyone is in wait-and-see mode pending FOMC meeting outcome. My suspicion is that we are topping and due a pullback to 2020.

csw2002

OEX PCR final ajdusted closed at 1.29 neutral. No change to SH or SPXU. SDS saw further outflow.

葡萄柚

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 2.55 - again in bearish territory. No change to SH, SDS or SPXU

csw2002

OEX PCR final adjusted on Friday is at 1.8, neutral. However, intraday, OEX traders were very bearish and at cash close OEX PCR was at an extremely bearish 7.11. There is no change to SDS and SPXU. However, SH saw 16.6 millions outflow. When dumb short covers on a minor down tick (like what we had on Friday), this is bearish, as they would only do when they view bearish outcomes as unlikely and hence cover on any/minor weakness - and as they are usually the dumb short, that probably means we have just started on the downside. Combined with bearish OEX PCRs (and a string of them), I view the equity market as bearish and in the process of topping. We probably will get a couple more days of back and forth chops as early weakness gets bought at EOD (which we almost had) before slide kicks in with a bang.

georgeyn

coexist

novice_trader

csw2002 发表于 2015-11-1 01:56 AM
OEX PCR final adjusted on Friday is at 1.8, neutral. However, intraday, OEX traders were very bearis ...

老大多更新,学习了。

student009