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20120720 ES Live DT

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-20 01:07 PM | 显示全部楼层


breakeven out, damn, sell short at 1359.75
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-20 01:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
Sell short in 1359.75 Stop at 1360.75
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发表于 2012-7-20 01:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
AHGfollower 发表于 2012-7-20 02:08 PM
Sell short in 1359.75 Stop at 1360.75

ok, u shorted @1359.75 and Stoploss(SL) is 1360.75
right??
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发表于 2012-7-20 01:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
longed @ 59.75  cut @59
bet reverse failed
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发表于 2012-7-20 01:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
azure4068 发表于 2012-7-20 02:20 PM
longed @ 59.75  cut @59
bet reverse failed

very bad trade.  big R ahead, why did i long??
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-20 01:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
closet trade for today,  loss 181.72.   have a nice weekend, guys!  I will sharp my skill first by doing simulation trades!    I think the system is there and works, but it is up to us to use it efficiently.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-20 01:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
azure4068 发表于 2012-7-20 02:17 PM
ok, u shorted @1359.75 and Stoploss(SL) is 1360.75
right??

yes,  I should really learn from you for disciplines, 老大向你学习.   
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发表于 2012-7-20 01:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
AHGfollower 发表于 2012-7-20 02:35 PM
closet trade for today,  loss 181.72.   have a nice weekend, guys!  I will sharp my skill first by d ...

u have a nice weekend 2, ur last trade is very good.
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发表于 2012-7-20 02:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
整个下午2.5pt range, TNND!!!!
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-20 03:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
azure4068 发表于 2012-7-20 03:53 PM
整个下午2.5pt range, TNND!!!!

nice gains for you!  向你学习感觉操作非常重要, 不注重纪律是我的缺点, 系统我也有了, 如何挣钱也知道了, 下一步就是管好自己的问题了.  下决心做好paper trade了.    也可以最近放松一下了.
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发表于 2012-7-21 12:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
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AHGfollower Lao Da, what indicators do you use in TOS? It seems the signal is very accurate. Have a good weekend.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-23 06:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
jlht 发表于 2012-7-21 01:15 AM
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AHGfollower Lao Da, what indicators do you use in TOS? It seems the signal  ...

Hi there,

惭愧呀, 我可不是老大, 我是新手.  我的方法这里有详细的介绍:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/sh ... ed&pagenumber=1
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发表于 2012-7-23 09:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
AHGfollower 发表于 2012-7-23 07:24 PM
Hi there,

惭愧呀, 我可不是老大, 我是新手.  我的方法这里有详细的介绍:

Thank you very much for sharing the method, based on your chart, if one can follow the arrows, a lot of win trades can be made, the entry and exit points are so accurate.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-23 11:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
jlht 发表于 2012-7-23 10:50 PM
Thank you very much for sharing the method, based on your chart, if one can follow the arrows, a l ...

not really,  those arrows are very lagging signals.  Sometime it shows up after the the market is already up or down 2-3 pionts some.  It is still very riskly.  

It won't work that way since it has a 100% win rate on the charts:).  Otherwise John carters' will become another Buffet.

But it did help you to confirm your entry and or set a stop point.      

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发表于 2012-7-24 03:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
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OK, I see, I have several this kind of indicators, they just give you signals one by one, until the last reversal, then the previous ones disappeared and only the last one left on the screen, it is really dangerous to follow the blinking arrows, I lost some money before and I did not use arrows since that time.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-24 03:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
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what kind of methods do you use?  
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发表于 2012-7-24 04:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
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I don't know the name of this method, it mixed some indicators together and gave signals by arrows, if you use AmiBroker, you can see it, the following is the code:

_SECTION_BEGIN("Price ADX");
function PercentR( periods )
{ return -100 * ( HHV( H, periods ) - C )/( HHV( H, periods ) - LLV( L, periods
) ); }
range = Param("Periods", 14, 2, 200, 1 );
ADX(range);
PDI(range) ;
MDI(range);
SetChartOptions(0,chartShowArrows|chartShowDates);
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} - {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} Open %g, Hi %g, Lo %g,
Close %g (%.1f%%) Vol " +WriteVal( V, 1.0 ) +" {{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C,
SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 )) ));
Plot( C, "Close", IIf( PDI(range) > MDI(range), ParamColor("Up Color",
colorGreen ), ParamColor("Down Color", colorRed ) ), styleNoTitle |
ParamStyle("Style") | GetPriceStyle() );
Bull_Trend=(PercentR( Param("Periods", 14, 2, 100 ) )> -30);
Bear_Trend=(PercentR( Param("Periods", 14, 2, 100 ) )< -70);
Ribbon_kol=IIf( Bull_Trend, colorGreen, IIf(Bear_Trend, colorRed,colorYellow))
;
Plot(6, "ribbon", Ribbon_kol, styleOwnScale| styleArea|
styleNoLabel,-0.5,100);
_SECTION_END();

_SECTION_BEGIN("DispMA");
P = ParamField("Field");
Type = ParamList("Type", "Simple,Exponential,Double Exponential,Tripple
Exponential,Wilders,Weighted");
Periods = Param("Periods", 30, 2, 100 );
Displacement = Param("Displacement", 15, -50, 50 );
SL= (HHV(H,13)+LLV(L,13))/2;
TL= (HHV(H,9)+LLV(L,9))/2;
m = Ref((SL+TL)/2,-2);
if( Type == "Simple" )                                         m = MA( P, Periods );
if( Type == "Exponential" )                         m = EMA( P, Periods );
if( Type == "Double Exponential" )         m = DEMA( P, Periods );
if( Type == "Tripple Exponential" )         m = TEMA( P, Periods );
if( Type == "Wilders" )                                 m = Wilders( P, Periods );
if( Type == "Weighted" )                                 m = WMA( P, Periods );

Plot( m, _DEFAULT_NAME(), IIf( C > m, ParamColor("Up Color", colorGreen ),
ParamColor("Down Color", colorRed ) ), styleLine, 0, 0, Displacement );
_SECTION_END();

  /* **********************************

Code to automatically identify pivots

********************************** */
// -- what will be our lookback range for the hh and ll?
farback=Param("How Far back to go",100,50,5000,10);
nBars = Param("Number of bars", 12, 5, 40);
// -- Title.
Title = Name() + " (" + StrLeft(FullName(), 15) + ") O: " + Open + ",
H: " + High + ", L: " + Low + ", C: " + Close;
// -- Plot basic candle chart
PlotOHLC(Open, High, Low, Close,
"BIdx = " + BarIndex() +
"\n" + "O = " + O + "\n"+"H = "+ H + "\n"+"L = " + L
+ "\n"+"C ",
colorBlack, styleCandle);
GraphXSpace=7;
// -- Create 0-initialized arrays the size of barcount
aHPivs = H - H;
aLPivs = L - L;
// -- More for future use, not necessary for basic plotting
aHPivHighs = H - H;
aLPivLows = L - L;
aHPivIdxs = H - H;
aLPivIdxs = L - L;
nHPivs = 0;
nLPivs = 0;
lastHPIdx = 0;
lastLPIdx = 0;
lastHPH = 0;
lastLPL = 0;
curPivBarIdx = 0;
// -- looking back from the current bar, how many bars
// back were the hhv and llv values of the previous
// n bars, etc.?
aHHVBars = HHVBars(H, nBars);
aLLVBars = LLVBars(L, nBars);
aHHV = HHV(H, nBars);
aLLV = LLV(L, nBars);
// -- Would like to set this up so pivots are calculated back from
// last visible bar to make it easy to "go back" and see the pivots
// this code would find. However, the first instance of
// _Trace output will show a value of 0
aVisBars = Status("barvisible");
nLastVisBar = LastValue(Highest(IIf(aVisBars, BarIndex(), 0)));
_TRACE("Last visible bar: " + nLastVisBar);
// -- Initialize value of curTrend
curBar = (BarCount-1);
curTrend = "";
if (aLLVBars[curBar] <
aHHVBars[curBar]) {
curTrend = "D";
}
else {
curTrend = "U";
}
// -- Loop through bars. Search for
// entirely array-based approach
// in future version
for (i=0; i<farback; i++) {
curBar = (BarCount - 1) - i;
// -- Have we identified a pivot? If trend is down...
if (aLLVBars[curBar] < aHHVBars[curBar]) {
// ... and had been up, this is a trend change
if (curTrend == "U") {
curTrend = "D";
// -- Capture pivot information
curPivBarIdx = curBar - aLLVBars[curBar];
aLPivs[curPivBarIdx] = 1;
aLPivLows[nLPivs] = L[curPivBarIdx];
aLPivIdxs[nLPivs] = curPivBarIdx;
nLPivs++;
}
// -- or current trend is up
} else {
if (curTrend == "D") {
curTrend = "U";
curPivBarIdx = curBar - aHHVBars[curBar];
aHPivs[curPivBarIdx] = 1;
aHPivHighs[nHPivs] = H[curPivBarIdx];
aHPivIdxs[nHPivs] = curPivBarIdx;
nHPivs++;
}
// -- If curTrend is up...else...
}
// -- loop through bars
}
// -- Basic attempt to add a pivot this logic may have missed
// -- OK, now I want to look at last two pivots. If the most
// recent low pivot is after the last high, I could
// still have a high pivot that I didn't catch
// -- Start at last bar
curBar = (BarCount-1);
candIdx = 0;
candPrc = 0;
lastLPIdx = aLPivIdxs[0];
lastLPL = aLPivLows[0];
lastHPIdx = aHPivIdxs[0];
lastHPH = aHPivHighs[0];
if (lastLPIdx > lastHPIdx) {
// -- Bar and price info for candidate pivot
candIdx = curBar - aHHVBars[curBar];
candPrc = aHHV[curBar];
if (
lastHPH < candPrc AND
candIdx > lastLPIdx AND
candIdx < curBar) {
// -- OK, we'll add this as a pivot...
aHPivs[candIdx] = 1;
// ...and then rearrange elements in the
// pivot information arrays
for (j=0; j<nHPivs; j++) {
aHPivHighs[nHPivs-j] = aHPivHighs[nHPivs-
(j+1)];
aHPivIdxs[nHPivs-j] = aHPivIdxs[nHPivs-(j+1)];
}
aHPivHighs[0] = candPrc ;
aHPivIdxs[0] = candIdx;
nHPivs++;
}
} else {
// -- Bar and price info for candidate pivot
candIdx = curBar - aLLVBars[curBar];
candPrc = aLLV[curBar];
if (
lastLPL > candPrc AND
candIdx > lastHPIdx AND
candIdx < curBar) {
// -- OK, we'll add this as a pivot...
aLPivs[candIdx] = 1;
// ...and then rearrange elements in the
// pivot information arrays
for (j=0; j<nLPivs; j++) {
aLPivLows[nLPivs-j] = aLPivLows[nLPivs-(j+1)];
aLPivIdxs[nLPivs-j] = aLPivIdxs[nLPivs-(j+1)];
}
aLPivLows[0] = candPrc;
aLPivIdxs[0] = candIdx;
nLPivs++;
}
}
// -- Dump inventory of high pivots for debugging
/*
for (k=0; k<nHPivs; k++) {
_TRACE("High pivot no. " + k
+ " at barindex: " + aHPivIdxs[k] + ", "
+ WriteVal(ValueWhen(BarIndex()==aHPivIdxs[k],
DateTime(), 1), formatDateTime)
+ ", " + aHPivHighs[k]);
}
*/
// -- OK, let's plot the pivots using arrows
PlotShapes(IIf(aHPivs==1, shapeDownArrow, shapeNone), colorRed, 0, High,
Offset=-15);
PlotShapes(IIf(aLPivs==1, shapeUpArrow , shapeNone), colorBlue, 0, Low,
Offset=-15);

_SECTION_BEGIN("Bollinger Bands");
P = ParamField("Price field",-1);
Periods = Param("Periods", 15, 2, 100, 1 );
Width = Param("Width", 2, 0, 10, 0.05 );
Color = ParamColor("Color", colorCycle );
Style = ParamStyle("Style");
Plot( BBandTop( P, Periods, Width ), "BBTop" + _PARAM_VALUES(), Color, Style );

Plot( BBandBot( P, Periods, Width ), "BBBot" + _PARAM_VALUES(), Color, Style );

_SECTION_END();

_SECTION_BEGIN("EMA1");
P = ParamField("Price field",-1);
Periods = Param("Periods", 15, 2, 200, 1, 10 );
Plot( EMA( P, Periods ), _DEFAULT_NAME(), ParamColor( "Color", colorCycle ),
ParamStyle("Style") );
_SECTION_END();

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-24 05:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
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how about its win rate?  
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-24 05:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
AHGfollower 发表于 2012-7-24 06:21 PM
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how about its win rate?

Do you mind doing a screenshot for a quick visual view?  it will be better to understand the method.    It seems using EMA+BB+Pivot Points which I think pretty good.
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发表于 2012-7-24 05:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
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I did not backtest it, sometimes it is accurate, but sometimes it just gives you arrows one by one until the real reversal happened, I think if the noise can be removed somehow, it will be a good indicator, I don't follow its arrows for trading decisions, just as a reference.

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