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发表于 2012-2-22 10:38 AM
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The big move overnight came in Dollar/Yen. The USD Dollar pushed above 80 Yen per USD for the first time in seven months.
Positive anticipation of this morning’s US housing data (to be released at 10:00 AM) helped nudge USD/Yen higher as manybegin to believe that signs of US growth will reduce the case for further quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve. Stronger US data and a stronger sense that the interest rate story will soon begin to turn around will be Yen negative. The Bank of Japan will rejoice in such moves. They have been verbally combating a stronger Yen for quite some time and they would welcome any moves which will weaken the currency and eventually provide some relief to Japanese exporters.
The Norwegian Krone rose as oil topped a nine month high.
This sudden increase in oil prices is stirring up inflation concernswhich could threaten growth. Iran (the Middle East’s second largest oil producer) cut exports to France and the UK and is threatening additional steps should the world continue to interfere in their nuclear aspirations. International Atomic Agency inspectors were refused access to Iranian power plants which is raising the fear level that a confrontation in the region is growing closer.
Yesterday Euro-area finance ministers approved a 130 billion Euro aid package for Greece. They will tap into ECB profits and they have managed to coax investors, such as China, into providing more debt relief. The Euro reached a three month high versus the Yen after the Greek government sent debt-swap and austerity measures to parliament for approval. The EU finance ministers have thrown Greece a 130 billion Euro lifeline which will help them dodge a March bankruptcy bullet. So why isn’t the Euro higher? The markets seem to be relieved but they also seem to remain skeptical about the actual implementation of the Greek austerity program. Greece has rioters in the streetsprotesting the plan. There is a
very good chance that those who are now signing the agreement to accept the aid will not be in office to implement the changes after the March elections. The markets are skeptical with good reason. Greece has been handed aid before and has failed to hold up their end of the bargain before. Why should we believe anything has changed? EU finance ministers suggest that the EU regulators that will swarm over Greek authorities will keep the country in line. We shall see.
Asian equity markets were responding to speculation that today’s US housing data will show continued improvement and the Dow, which touched on 13,000 yesterday. Japanese investors are buying Aussie Dollars on optimism which is encouraging some risk taking. However, the Dollar down under gave up some of its earlier gains after Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd resigned. This action could lead to a leadership battle with Prime Minister Gillard. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-2-22 09:59 AM
