added count to chart or should say the answer that is mostly likely
(1) The impulsive (clear 5 wave structure) move from 956.23 to 903.78 tells me it is possible that upside bounce from March low of 666 is completed. [B] is done. If wave [B] is done, then we are in minor wave 1 of major down wave [C]. within minor wave 1, we are in mini wave 4. if this count is correct, then we should not see the bounce pass 935.
(2) Everytime when SPX breaks its key support lines, It did a back test, it did that on 945, 930, 920. So if we do see SPX breaks down heading to next major support 880, it is likely will back test 900 as a final kiss-bye-bye (last chance to exit 401K longs)
(3) Black thin lines form a wedge and a channel, The wedge is broken, The channel is not. That is why I keep saying the 900 mark on spx is very important. Break down below 900 breaks this up trend channel with measured target 880.
(4) Both blue and red fork marks important support and resistance zone, as you can see the first touch of this layer of support bounced back. If I count this mini wave 4 as abc, then the c of 4 should be around 920-930. BUT I added a Green line here, without pass 915 tomorrow, there is no way SPX can go 920+, so that is the first thing we need look for confirmation tomorrow. If SPX fails to pass 915, then the mini 3 is NOT done. and likely OE will be between the green line and 900. If that is true, then after OE, the bounce will be the mini wave 4.
(5) Notice every 5 points move above now has the resistance: 910, 915, 920, 925, 930, 940, 945, only if SPX can pass 950, will invalidate the current count here.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-6-17 08:27 PM
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