Dumb money vs. smart money

lite1067

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-2 07:44 PM
I hope you weren't shaked out by post nfp decline.

For today, final oex pcr closed at 1.08, no  ...

thanks.

luckily, i didn't get shaken out by nfp weakness. Instead i got a sh*t load and enjoyed the roller coaster afterwards :-)

wreckbeach

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-2 07:44 PM
I hope you weren't shaked out by post nfp decline.

For today, final oex pcr closed at 1.08, no  ...

老大，你这个指标看来挺有道理的。请继续。

我盼望今晚旗帜跌，明天SPY大低开。

lite1067

dumb money 的小熊终于投降了。SH outstanding shares dropped 2.6MM. OEX PCR closed at 0.69, still a solid buy. csw2002, it seems PCR always more sensitive/volatile.

csw2002

lite1067 发表于 2015-10-5 09:59 PM
dumb money 的小熊终于投降了。SH outstanding shares dropped 2.6MM. OEX PCR closed at 0.69, still a so ...

Dumb money SH has covered a lot of shorts - but in the overall scheme of the thing, I think there is more to go as the shares outstanding are still way too high with many dumb shorts having entered their positions much higher up in SPX (and lower on SH). Cash OEX PCR closed at 0.69 but the final adjusted number is 1.01 - so at a neutral reading. What's more worrying for bulls, on the other hand, is that smart money shorts in SDS and SPXU both saw inflows. This at least suggest a retracement tomorrow. However, given the extended bearishness built up amongst dumb shorts and the need for the big money to unwind their long positions (which they failed to do prior to the flash crash No 2 in July and Aug), I believe more rallies are coming so that dumb money will become euphoric again and big money can sell into the euphoria.

lite1067

OEX PCR jumped and closed at bearish 2.41. SH outstanding shares stayed the same.

adjusted PCR number 等csw2002的update 吧。i suspect it would become even more bearish, considering ES dropped several points btw 4 and 415pm today.

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 3.21 - firmly on the sell side. No change to SH but again inflows into SDS and SPXU. I believe a pullback is in order for Wednesday - but it will be bought, if not on Wednesday than on Thursday. I am hedged going into Wednesday and expect to unwind the hedge between Wednesday and Thursday.

lite1067

what a roller coaster day. SH的熊熊继续投降。another 1.5M shares redemption. almost everything else looks bullish.

csw2002

lite1067 发表于 2015-10-7 10:07 PM
what a roller coaster day. SH的熊熊继续投降。another 1.5M shares redemption. almost everything else  ...

Sorry for the late update. The final adjusted OEX PCR closed at neutral value of 1.33 and SH saw 30 millions covered. However, shares outstanding are still at a whopping 93375K versus normal cycle top of around 60000K to 75000K shares outstanding in SH. Hence, in the overall context, we are overbought by a number of measures short term but on intermediate term, we are a long way from overbought. SPXU remained flat while SDS saw continued inflow. This still suggests a short term pullback that will be bought. I have built a net short position and expect to close the short leg within a couple of days.

georgeyn

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-8 06:42 AM
Sorry for the late update. The final adjusted OEX PCR closed at neutral value of 1.33 and SH saw 3 ...

many thanks

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 0.97, neutral to slightly bullish. No change to SH and SPXU and more inflow into SDS. You guys know me that I am very bullish intermediate term, but short term, we are overbought on a number of measures. I am still looking for a small pullback that would be a buying opportunity. The best thing to do, if you don't have a position, is to sit back and try to buy on a dip or wait till we clear 2040 for a run to all time high.

georgeyn

thanks

csw2002

Final adjusted oex pcr is 2.7 again going into the sell territory for the second time this week. What's interesting about today's session is that oex pcr has been bearish all day long, going as high ad 10. The last time I saw such extreme values was on the Sept Fed day. Of course, after that day, spx embarked on a 100 points plus plunge over the next 6 trading days. I am not sure we would have another decline of the same magnitude but oex traders don't get so negative for no reason. I closed my longs and am on the short side. This may be a quick trade to 1980 which is the next level of support, or I may hold short for a ride to the bottom of the range depending on how market performs over the next few days. Of course, I can be completely wrong to follow oex traders.

No change to SH, SDS and SPXU.

I am now short.

csw2002

Another strange day. I must admit that I am not too sure what is going on here. Final adjusted OEX PCR is now at 0.76 - weak buy. However, there is also another 17 millions inflow into SH with inflows in SDS and SPXU. There seems to be lots of indecision and the market is extremely overbought by a number of measures. I am still holding my shorts but I am looking to flatten up and get long again, hopefully at a lower level.

wreckbeach

csw2002 发表于 2015-10-13 01:21 AM
Another strange day. I must admit that I am not too sure what is going on here. Final adjusted OEX P ...

moreliver  Could be temporally up, long term down.  发表于 2015-10-13 08:57 AM

原来磨大侠只是看短期涨，仍然看长期跌。

csw2002

Strange Day No 3: OEX PCR was bearish all day long, with cash close at a very bearish 3.17 but adjusted final number at 2.0 - which is neutral to slightly bearish. Dumb money SH saw another 17 millions inflow taking total inflow to 34 millions this week, again edging up to its previous all time high. On the other hand, SDS and SPXU also saw significant inflows. I did trim my short during European session weakness but added them back as I saw how smart money was getting bearish. The 10 day OEX PCR is now bearish - though that is not a signal on its own. Hence I am holding shorts pending resolution. Another interesting thing about today is that ISEE Equity Only closed above 200 again. This is the 10th time it did so in 2015. In previous 9 cases, all but one (4th of Feb) led to sizeable pullbacks within a few days.

csw2002

wreckbeach 发表于 2015-10-13 07:04 PM
moreliver  Could be temporally up, long term down.  发表于 2015-10-13 08:57 AM

原来磨大侠只是看 ...

I am short term bearish (up until early next week), intermediate term bullish (up till Thanksgiving) and long term very bearish.

georgeyn

学习了，多谢！

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 1.54 - neutral. What is interesting is that today when the market rallied in the first hour, the OEX traders were very bearish. For the past few days, whenever market rallied, the OEX traders became bearish. I don't believe this is a good sign for bulls. No change to SH, SDS and SPXU.

I trimmed my shorts during early weakness and are still holding the rest of the shorts. May consider adding back the shorts given the Globex pop

georgeyn

thanks for the update

csw2002

Final adjusted OEX PCR closed at 2.87 - again in sell territory. OEX PCR has been very bearish all day long despite the rally. SH saw another 31 millions inflow taking current week inflow to 68 millions - definitely fuel for another round of short squeeze. There is also inflow in SDS and SPXU. Generally a very confused picture is emerging in so far as smart money and dumb money is concerned. OEX traders have been bearish since the end of last week and continued to add puts while dumb money is also bearish. Ideally, I'd like to trade on the side of the side of OEX smart money while dumb money takes the other side. When both are on the same side, it becomes a bit tricky and I am not quite sure which way to lean on. I had to close the shorts I added during Globex hours yesterday and hedged the rest pending clearer picture.