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发表于 2013-6-12 05:37 PM
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本帖最后由 greenback 于 2013-6-12 06:48 PM 编辑
Okay a recap first ...
We got the first target, ma50, and NYMO is oversold. The retracement percentages of major indices are also close to the amount observed in previous major pull backs. What we need next is a reversal bar: most likely with a panic sell day, so get ready to act when it comes ...
As we've been saying, the market is in the process of discovering value. Since we don't do FA analysis, we don't know how low is low in the eyes of institutions. Thus the only thing we can do is to sit tight and jump in when big fish have gone in. Nevertheless, a likely date is around the FOMC meeting next week.
In the mean time, the best trade so far this month is to short US T Bills ... we are in a bit late, but better late than nothing. Again, this trade is clearly rational and is based on the idea of "dancing with the central bankers". The topic of the month is QE tapering. 10yr is at ~2.2% and the whisper number is for it to "normalize" to 4%. That's lots of selling ahead. However, you may want to reduce/close the position right before the FOMC meeting because there can be very violate reaction at the FOMC announcement. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2013-6-11 01:01 PM
