九天 发表于 2013-3-5 01:51 PM 
我想跟踪AAPL，因为听说会王者归来。
但从10天交易量SMA和走势来看，降势尚未结束，同志仍需等待，各位老大 ...
AAPL COLOR:
I think it's fair to assume that just about every fund in the world with US equity exposure was loaded to the gills with AAPL as recently as last fall. This was arguably the most over-owned stock of the past decade. So I think it's going to take a long time (maybe a year or more) for the transition in the shareholder base to play out, from growth investors in the last cycle -- and dip buyers who keep trying to catch the falling knife -- to strong-handed value investors. What this means is that technical zones may not play a prominent role in where AAPL bottoms. The stock will bottom when all of the weak-handed holders from the prior cycle, and all of the premature dip buyers, are all done selling. The end of this long-term distribution may coincide with a major technical level, but I wouldn't think in those terms.
If you're looking for an entry zone in AAPL for a long-term investment position, I would recommend being extremely patient and waiting for the stock to show signs of that "washed out" look on the weekly chart. Essentially, AAPL should put in a low, and then show on repeated tests that it can hold that low. This will evolve into a sideways range on the chart that will eventually take out the long-term downtrend line that began last September. Once you see that, then you can conclude that the transition in the shareholder base is complete. Again, you're looking for signs on the chart that the huge supply of shares to be sold is finally in rough equilibrium with demand.
Of course, once the downtrend is broken and a range has developed, whether the stock can appreciate from there is an entirely different question (look at monthly charts of MSFT and INTC, for example).
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狗仔卡
发表于 2013-3-5 02:08 PM
发表于 2013-3-5 02:27 PM
