迟来的weekly yy。

yanjun

firecs

这个贴的技术含量很高。。。 多谢指导。。。。

suncert

回复  draguide

你要再往深里想一下，国债收益和企业债卷收益的关系，企业债卷收益和股市的关系，这样想 ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 02:32

I agree with you. 如果国债收益率提高的话, 企业债卷收益率也一定水涨船高. 企业借贷的成本将会增加. 如果象WALMART今天ER和CSCO的ER中所提的那样, 美国普通消费者不花钱, 政法部门消减BUDGET. 外部是欧洲的债券问题. 中国严厉收紧房地产和经济. 唯一还具有一线希望的私有企业将腹背受敌. FED的QE2想法很好, 刺激通胀预期, 让大家敞开消费, 拼命的保持购买力, 从而拉动经济. 可是如果没有世界其他各国的合作或遭到象现在中国这样的强烈反击, 后果是不堪设想的.

bucks

俺的看法是QE2的目的之一是降低长期利率。这一目的目前看达到了，长期利率又见新低。这一目标的背后实质上还 ...
Read0nly 发表于 2010-11-15 23:04

Where do you check the long-term rate for a new low? The data on bankrate.com shows the mortgage rate for both 15 and 30 years have been rising. $TYX shows the same thing.

bucks

回复  draguide

你要再往深里想一下，国债收益和企业债卷收益的关系，企业债卷收益和股市的关系，这样想 ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 02:32

which ticker for the 企业债卷收益? thanks

colderdown

回复 45# bucks

To follow bond's trader, you can check HYG.

X!nG

向d兄学习。

这两天很忙，所以没过来给你捧场。

dzyx

回复 46# colderdown


    LQD is a better grade. Sign of market bottoming soon.

draguide

回复  draguide

你要再往深里想一下，国债收益和企业债卷收益的关系，企业债卷收益和股市的关系，这样想 ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 02:32

8好意思，早上有点事，回来晚了。
谢谢冷唇老大指点。
我知道国债收益涨会推高企业债的收益，也就是说企业借贷成本提高。
通常认为企业债收益上涨，股市会下跌。
但是过去一年，国债的收益和股市是基本在同一个方向移动。是否积极的经济数据可以推高通胀预期，从而推高国债收益。同时好的经济数据也可以推高股市？

另外图中我用moody‘s corporate bond Aaa的yield来看，可以看到它的yield基本上follow30yr国债的yield，但是为什么hyg我对比ief（7-10），shy（1-3），tlt（20+），却发现它并不follow其中任何一个呢？
还有就是我感觉长债的收益是在8月底大本讲话要qe2的时候见底的。是否可以说大本从那时起就开始刺激通胀预期？如果看tips和一般国债的spread也可以证实这一点。
正常情况下通胀就代表国债收益涨，反过来要压低国债就不可能刺激通胀。我想大本不至于秀逗的认为凭着fed的600b就可以获得通胀预期，同时压低国债收益吧？这么大的国债市场，fed不可能持续扭曲通胀和国债收益的关联？

draguide

向d兄学习。

这两天很忙，所以没过来给你捧场。
X!nG 发表于 2010-11-16 12:42

    捧场不用了，向冷唇老大那样指点一下就行。
我在这方面的了解只能用浅薄来形容。发出来是希望各位老大指点一下。学点东西。

Diver

信则不灵

周末本想写点东西支持一下胡同，无奈抽不出时间。
今天周一了，简单的说两句俺的看法。反正是关于今后一两 ...
draguide 发表于 2010-11-15 16:53

zhang62188

Unique analysis

draguide

信则不灵
Diver 发表于 2010-11-16 16:44

colderdown

回复 48# dzyx

LQD is on long term end, so it did not really reflect market sense well. It is in sync with TLT.

draguide

回复  dzyx

LQD is on long term end, so it did not really reflect market sense well. It is in syn ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 18:17

        冷唇兄，hyg反应的主要是短期的企业债吗？

colderdown

回复 49# draguide

Don't call me 老大, bro, or dude is better.

Now, we need to look at Big Ben's thinking. He think inflation is good for recovery. However, I don't know what kind of sh@t he just drank. The real mild inflation comes from strong demand. Big Ben's inflation comes from flood of money. While demand is still under pressure, what good does inflation bring to the table? The inflation expectation will work on higher saving rate country? Does US belong to that? Hell no. Meanwhile, even the inflation expectation can easily pump up the bonds' yield, which in turn increasing the business cost. Thus, I don't think Big Ben's logic works on classic concept. I think he is trying to creat an inflation outside US, which will induce strong demand from other countries. don't even mention assets bubble. This will buy time for US until all the other bubbles gone and capitial flowing back to US. Only then, US becomes really attractive investment, not because US is leading, just because the others are in trash can.

I post a very long stuff on my "Big Wind". If you have time, take a quick look.

colderdown

回复 55# draguide


  It is BB bonds, it reflect bond traders view of market. It leads the US equity market.

draguide

回复  draguide

Don't call me 老大, bro, or dude is better.

Now, we need to look at Big Ben's  ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 18:29

谢谢冷兄。
    这个big wind在哪？是在冷唇兄的小黑屋吗？我去看了一眼没找见

colderdown

回复 58# draguide

Here.

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... age%3D3&page=11

Big Ben, Alan Greenspan are both freaking fakes, however, the US public think they are savers, that just made my day.

draguide

回复  draguide

Here.



Big Ben, Alan Greenspan are both freaking fakes, however, the US pub ...
colderdown 发表于 2010-11-16 18:41

    谢谢冷兄。