虽然亏损，没有恐慌

novice_trader

风行过

sorry 发表于 2016-7-14 12:06 PM
make it 26.5, 20 weekly MA  

my last 6 VIX trades ended in green, make it 7, fingers cross ...

hold a second all, Can I ask some fundamental here?
fear factor indicator is derived from underline stock/equity etc. Normally you can not use the VIX to judge how the underline stock will run, is it? cause and affect thing.

I know, we have regular stock indicators, MACD, RSI etc. which is also derived from stock pricing, momentum, volume, movement.  and we are using them to judge the future stock moment.

But using VIX? that is a bit too much this way is it? You can not say if fear drop to here, then stock will like to bounce... etc.

Please explain to me how I am wrong here. thanks

wstock

短炒不用管损耗

sorry

风行过 发表于 2016-7-14 01:17 PM
hold a second all, Can I ask some fundamental here?
fear factor indicator is derived from underl ...

not 100% correlated but normally 1 point vix for 1% spx, therefore it can be calculated.

tcm328pan

Thanks

fishpet1

thank you very much

风行过

sorry 发表于 2016-7-14 01:34 PM
not 100% correlated but normally 1 point vix for 1% spx, therefore it can be calculated.

I see. thanks

but what I mean is that normally you can not draw a trend line, or resistant line like that on VIX and saying that stock with fall at here, will you? cause it can stay there for a while, therefore the line of sand is not that define.

This is for discussion only, not for any argument sake.

shibainu

whysoserious

sorry 发表于 2016-7-14 11:54 AM
算了下 uvxy 近期 max pain 在 6.4左右， 也就是xiv 30, weekly 200ma 有个阻力线，应该回调到27左右

我也这么看， XIV到30的时候可以考虑买点UVXY

MLat42

风行过 发表于 2016-7-14 11:45 AM
这话说的有点决了。
每一种产品的存在就有它一定的道理。没一种产品都能赚钱，也都能输钱。就看你的risk ...

我也只是说说而已。你不愿意听就算了。
VXX，UVXY 必须当成option 来看待。方向和时机都不可少。

Contract        Last        Change        Open        High        Low        Previous        Volume        Time        Links
VIY00 (Cash)        12.82        -0.22        12.50        13.37        12.14        13.04        0        15:14          
VIN16 (Jul '16)        14.250        +0.200        14.050        14.300        14.050        14.050        84,750        18:14          
VIQ16 (Aug '16)        16.250        +0.130        16.100        16.300        16.100        16.120        85,386        18:10          
VIU16 (Sep '16)        17.670        +0.080        17.580        17.700        17.550        17.590        24,533        18:01          
VIV16 (Oct '16)        18.600        +0.100        18.450        18.660        18.450        18.500        9,649        18:00          
VIX16 (Nov '16)        19.100        +0.100        18.990        19.100        18.900        19.000        59        18:08          
VIZ16 (Dec '16)        19.150        +0.050        19.000        19.160        19.000        19.100        4,214        17:53          
VIF17 (Jan '17)        20.150        +0.050        20.060        20.150        20.060        20.100        2,317        18:07          
VIG17 (Feb '17)        20.250        +0.050        20.250        20.250        20.250        20.200        1        18:08          
VIH17 (Mar '17)        19.900s        -0.625        0.000        19.900        19.900        20.525        0        07/14/16       

   

sorry

风行过 发表于 2016-7-14 02:42 PM
I see. thanks

but what I mean is that normally you can not draw a trend line, or resistant line ...

when I long or short VIX, I use all 5 tickers to analyze the trade, spx vxx xiv uvxy vix, then calculate resistance and supports to execute entry and exit

when vix is his low, usually means a short term top is due, therefore a pullback is expected. For massive moves, use MA.

NewFlower888

Do you still hold UVXY? I still hold my VXX. I did average down. Now the cost is 11.61. Not sure if I should cut loss or wait for another week. It's so strange that the VIX is keeping falling into 11:50 area. Thanks!

恒一

NewFlower888 发表于 2016-7-20 10:54 AM
Do you still hold UVXY? I still hold my VXX. I did average down. Now the cost is 11.61. Not sure if  ...

我从昨天下午两点多离开办公室，现在刚回来。刚出了一点UVXY，准备那退出来的钱，等机会短炒一把 CALL 或者 PUT，把损失补回来。

有时需要耐心。我几个星期前空的 NUGT，今天看到挣钱了。

NewFlower888

恒一 发表于 2016-7-20 12:37 PM
我从昨天下午两点多离开办公室，现在刚回来。刚出了一点UVXY，准备那退出来的钱，等机会短炒一把 CALL 或 ...

Thanks! I still have cash and will hold VXX for another week to see. It's so strange that the vix goes down to 11.5 without any spike. It couldn't be holding here for long.

恒一

NewFlower888 发表于 2016-7-20 12:51 PM
Thanks! I still have cash and will hold VXX for another week to see. It's so strange that the vix  ...

From tomorrow to Tuesday, there might be a couple of down days. If not, next Wednesday/Thursday.

NewFlower888

恒一 发表于 2016-7-20 12:54 PM
From tomorrow to Tuesday, there might be a couple of down days. If not, next Wednesday/Thursday.

Thank you very much!

sorry

恒一 发表于 2016-7-20 12:54 PM
From tomorrow to Tuesday, there might be a couple of down days. If not, next Wednesday/Thursday.

i took a 12% hit today and closed my longs, very disappointed

NewFlower888

I just closed the position which added yesterday. Now still hold 2000 VXX and will close half sometime today too. I will keep some to see  how tomorrow goes. Thank you so much!

Cheese

几天没看，发现涨到30多了？

恒一

Cheese 发表于 2016-7-25 10:10 AM
几天没看，发现涨到30多了？

It had a reverse 5:1 split today.