Forex/Futures ST for Week 7/1-7/5

greenback

aimei 发表于 2013-7-2 11:04 PM
啊
那应该一道涨 亚
还是不太懂

The transportation efficiency for the US crude is improving, so its price is going up faster, relatively speaking.

But are you betting the price difference? Why do you care?

greenback

Equity indices are not bearish yet in the short-term ... we finally bought the position we have been hoping for in NIKKEI in the 401K account.

DAX is weak and will depend on tomorrow's ECB news ...

Egypt is the black horse and can ruin bulls' party, and so the hedge would be to long oil for the risk.

greenback

GOLD may spike further with CRUDE if Egypt can't settle this week.

aimei

greenback 发表于 2013-7-3 01:03 PM
The transportation efficiency for the US crude is improving, so its price is going up faster, rela ...

learned
thanks

greenback

Can't believe it. Russell is at the all-time high level already! But DAX needs to do more ... Thanks to ECB and BOE meetings, the equity indices decided to break up from the range that we mentioned before the holiday. Indeed it wasn't a bearish pattern, i.e. a bull flag.

Let's see whether the breakout can hold. We are in NIKKEI long again (this time with futures) with breakeven stop loss after NIKKEI backtested yesterday's low during Asian trading hours. Nevertheless, all equity bullish bets depend on how the Fri's labor data looks, so let's don't pretend we know the outcome. Our bullish bet is already in with a zero loss security.

Trading is always like this, we just have to try until we find a lasting trend. Prediction is NOT important!

greenback

A word on the Egypt risk ... news is saying their stock market is up huge due to the relief of no violence after the coup ... CRUDE and GOLD are stabilizing. In fact GOLD is already turning weaker.

Jeff

Thanks!

greenback

Bulls are doing fantastic! MA20 got successfully backtested and MA50 got decisively broken! This bull leg shall have more life ... This doesn't mean it will go up again next Mon, but it does need a bullish confirmation next week of course.

greenback

A brief recap of the weekly charts first ... overall, the market actions are consistent with last week's review: not bearish yet in the intermediate term. The most bullish is Russell: an all-time new high close is made today! NIKKEI is coming back extremely strong: we are 50% in NKD long futures with break even stop loss.

This week's bar leads to support that the all time high in May is very likely to be tested again, and an all-time new high is becoming more likely in the next three months.

greenback

On the other hands, bond and equity are finally starting to decouple ... and the bond is not looking good if FED doesn't calm the market in the coming weeks. I don't know what elese they can say.

The rising rate may eventually derail the housing market recovery if it rises too much too fast.