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发表于 2012-6-4 09:56 AM
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They should know better --- always take our data with a bucket of salt -- because not only we make shoes and t-shirts we make up data too.
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Take reports of China slowdown with grain of salt, for now
June 4, 2012, 10:53 AM
Take care before you accept the conventional wisdom that China’s economy is slowing. Or at least wait a few days, until June 9, when the world’s second largest economy will release retail sales for May, said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
The retail sales data will be an acid test of views on China’s economy.
Weinberg thinks that CPI-adjusted retail sales accelerated last month after bottoming out last fall, This will push GDP up in the current quarter back to its 9.8% trend rate of growth.
But if sales volumes did not pick up in May, “we will fold up our tent and agree with the majority that China’s economy is slowing,” he said.
In any case, Weinberg said that investors should ignore HSBC’s China Purchasing Managers’ Index released last week. The index slipped to 48.4 in May versus April’s 49.3.
“We do not believe that the PMI’s for China tell us anything useful about the state of the economy,” Weinberg said.
“To understand China’s economic cycle, you have to know how many new factories are being built each year,” he said.
“The fact that existing factories are seeing a smidgen more or fewer goods move through their gates is important to them, but it does not inform us one bit about new factory start-ups and aggregate growth of industry,” Weinberg said. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-6-4 11:50 AM
