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发表于 2012-3-29 04:49 PM
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Interesting reading on health care and Obamacare.
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Stocks Fall, But Check Out the Health-Care ETF
By Brendan Conway
The health-care sector is bucking the broader market’s downtrend, with a handful of analysts guessing that the Supreme Court’s Obamacare endgame actually turns out quite well for many companies.
It’s putting a modest charge into the The iShares DJ US Health Care Providers Index (IHF), which is up 1.7% at $66.39 in late-afternoon trading Thursday. That’s an about-face from investors’ negativity on the sector after word Wednesday that the Supreme Court may strike down some or all of the president’s signature health-care bill. My colleague Avi Salzman gave the clearest example of the more positive sentiment: Bernstein Research analyst Ana Gupta’s prediction that the managed care sector will rally after the decision in the case is handed down in June. She specifically mentioned UnitedHealth Group (UNH), WellPoint (WLP), Coventry Health Care (CVH) and Aetna (AET).
Others see a mixed picture, however. Here’s Susquehanna Financial’s Chris Rigg:
The tone of the hearings on the Medicaid expansion was much less decisive. Our view continues to be the odds of the Medicaid expansion being ruled unconstitutional are much lower than the individual mandate. Nevertheless, the odds are not zero that the expansion is ruled unconstitutional and/or is thrown out because the Court determines the mandate is unconstitutional and not severable. With 16 mln people estimated to gain coverage via the Medicaid expansion, we estimate the lost annual revenue opportunity would approximate $35 bln-$40 bln. The organic, non-health reform driven Medicaid opportunity is unlikely to be derailed by any Supreme Court outcome. However, the elimination of the Medicaid expansion would undeniably be a negative for Amerigroup (AGP), Centene (CNC), Molina (MOH), and WellCare.
And Leerink Swann’s Jason Gurda, who resists this week’s consensus as he predicts that the individual mandate will be upheld:
Bottom Line: We Expect the Individual Mandate Will Be Upheld. Swing votes such as Kennedy and Roberts appear to be looking for a limiting factor, or why healthcare is unique enough to require this type of solution. We believe the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals provided that when it ruled late last year that “the government does stress that the health care market is factually unique; there are few other markets, it says, where participation is a virtual certainty, or where declining to buy a product disproportionately causes a national economic problem.” ….
Updated Thoughts on Managed Care and Hospital Stocks. While our take above should be positive for both managed care and the hospital groups longer term, uncertainty may limit the upside ahead of the expected decision in June. For managed care stocks, we believe the biggest concern will remain around severability, as investors will remain concerned about the potential for the mandate being overturned while the remainder of the law stands. However, combined with our expectations of strong 1Q earnings, we don’t believe this overhang will prevent the stocks from working near term. For hospital stocks, there are more significant concerns about whether the mandate or the entire law could be overturned. However, we would use pullbacks as buying opportunities as we believe longer term the Supreme Court’s decision in June will be a significant catalyst. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-3-29 11:36 AM
发表于 2012-3-30 06:06 PM