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发表于 2025-11-7 12:01 AM
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"The Shiller CAPE, a traditional metric of market value, recently crossed 40 – a level last seen during the dot – com bubble in early 2000s. For many observers, this raises concerns about potential overvaluation and the risk of a market correction."@MacrobondF pic.twitter.com/tTmEqDcP9W
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) November 6, 2025
Still, no one rings a bell at the top—and the Shiller CAPE ratio, for all its historical weight, isn't a crystal ball. It's a blunt instrument: great at spotting long-term risk, terrible at telling you when to hit the eject button.
The CAPE ratio has been flashing "overvalued" since November 2023, consistently sitting above 30—nearly double its long-term average of 17.
If you had used that as your signal to stay out of the market, you'd have missed a massive rally. Since then, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) has surged 62%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ QQ)—home to many of the AI-linked megacaps—has jumped 78%.
Yes, the Shiller CAPE has a proven track record when you zoom out. But up close? It's a terrible timer—and a painful one if misused.
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