石油现货和远期差价24块意味着油价要跌

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https://www.mcoscillator.com/lea ... ures_backwardation/
The contract for April 2026 delivery is now above $90.  But if you go out 11 months to the March 2027 contract, the price is still at $66.50.This creates the big spread you see in the chart above, and these episodes of very large backwardation are great markers of tops for oil prices.  Normally a spread of about $7/barrel is enough to mark a top, although it obviously can get to a much bigger spread like what we are seeing today.

The high backwardation spread we are seeing now is a topping condition, but it is not a "signal" to say that a top is in.  Oversold or overbought conditions always have the potential get even more extended.  But this current spread is an interesting bit of history, and a sign that this big spike in near month crude oil prices should not last very long.