I will say again, get out while you can!

老九

Markets have been ignoring all the bad news and charging ahead.  For those who bought in Feb and March, it is the best time to get out.  I have posted my reasons before.  I stand by my opinion and I will tell you, I will only start to invest when SPY is somewhere around 40.  Right now, you can only do DT or swing trade, if you have the stomach and deep enough pocket.  

Ignore all the calling of the arrive of new bull market.  This happened in the past recessions or depression.  Ignore all those so-so indicators.  By far, they are just a blip during this downturn.  Economy won't free fall all the way, as it won't straight up all the way.  Past recessions told us those econimic indicators might fluctuate even the fundamentals didn't change.

Housing price will continue down for the next few months.  The subprime wave may be nearing an end, but the prime loans, commercial, personal and student loans will be the next shoe to drop.  Why?  1) people's networth is dropping, 2) job losses mounting, and 3) consumers are not spending, period.  You can see malls or shops are packed, but who is spending? All window shopping.  Even those who buy things, the list on the receipt is getting shorter.  You may see one month people bought more, then another month less through out this recession.  

Someone said that I could be wrong this time.  Maybe, but I don't care.  If the market moves up, a big IF, I will make less by catching up later.  But if the market does go down, my risk is minimized.  Remember, in a bear market, never chase a rally until things are settled.

raise3

BRCBRC

Ding

happyface

zipped my pocket already.

revolver

Good.

tonghu

dara

LOL, You said it every day.

Did it happen?

littlebunny

raise3

LOL, You said it every day.

Did it happen?
dara 发表于 2009-4-22 12:38

dara

raise3 发表于 2009-4-22 12:40

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, OL:

colderdown

Half Hourly Volume Report for Selected Indices For 4/22/2009
  DOW Industrials S&P 100 S&P 500
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total
9:00 AM 440 71 511 1311 1529 2840 3770 10913 14683
9:30 AM 1022 229 1251 1985 2624 4609 9064 30322 39386
10:00 AM 1078 1219 2297 2424 3239 5663 22317 52383 74700
10:30 AM 1108 1286 2394 2623 3936 6559 24291 58158 82449
11:00 AM 1121 1437 2558 2731 4096 6827 32053 75374 107427
11:30 AM 1168 3341 4509 3029 4433 7462 35689 109505 145194
12:00 PM 1323 3890 5213 3214 4707 7921 92238 119517 211755
12:30 PM 1353 4011 5364 4202 5420 9622 97831 128311 226142
1:00 PM                  
1:30 PM                  
2:00 PM                  
2:30 PM                  
3:00 PM

小金

反复说，反复错，总有一天会对的。加油！
反复预测反复错的最好不再置顶，但可加入精华。xixi

小金

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, OL:
dara 发表于 2009-4-22 12:45

cannot stop "hahahahaha".

小金

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, OL:
dara 发表于 2009-4-22 12:45

cannot stop "hahahahaha-ing" until SPY=>40

纽约的鱼

HeiHei, when things are settled, you already miss 80%.

johndai

Ding!

jackie8443

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, OL:
dara 发表于 2009-4-22 12:45

oldfox

pqu

Though don't know the details, I doubt how many institutions really build their long positions, especially for banking stocks, now.  They might do very short-term investiment for hedge or abitrage to make their books look nice.  However, the risk of building heavy long positions when Fundamentals have no clear signs of bottomed is very high.  THis round of crisis started with Financial Institutions and we should expect to see a stable rally only after banking system shows some hope.  With more and more exposure of personal loan defaults (e.g. credit card defaults) and tight credit market, I really don't believe the banking system is bottomed and sure believe the market will prove it eventually, after all people rushing on change their 401K/IRA to stock market with the hope of catching the rally.  This will certainly take time, just like fishing.  It is a game of patience.

I understand many people may blame those who distributing negative outlook, especially when the market is behaving like a mad cow.  Please don't take all the opinions personally and use them as guidance of your own investiment.  Everyone has their own opinion and they deserve to be appreciated by sharing their opinions.  However, investiment is always at your own risk.