1> "我觉得到缠师发贴时无法断定2点结束了线段" this is correct IMO. However, there are 3笔 inside 线段12, the 3rd 笔 is 盘整背驰 to 1st 笔, this is easy to judge and take action, then is the crazy bull market, there is no down 笔 on monthly chart until 6104.
缠师 last question on that post "最后，再提一个思考题：为什么本ID在7月份要大搞满江红，而8月以后就放手坐轿子，请利用分型的原理给本ID的行为一个技术上的解释"? -- my answer is to void the top fracture and escape a down 笔 if 7月 close bellow 6月's low.
I think 缠师当时预测的走势 is there will be a down 笔 first before hit 6000, but the 上证 is way too crazy then which cause today's deep & complicated consolidation.
2> "问题又来啦: 假设上证真的突破3187点了, 那么请问下降线段的终点在哪里? 还在点2? 还是A点, B点?" -- 下降线段 from 1 is still 2. The high of next up 线段 would depends on future 走势.
austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-6 11:53 PM
Here is 缠师的 original words on how to decide 线段的端点 -- 教你炒股票78：继续说线段的划分 (2007-09 ...
I can't agree any more on your Point 1. The key point here is: We can't confirm the done of [12] even till today. Therefore, we can't deduce it must have a higher high after [23]. (Note that a higher high will be guaranteed if [12] was confirmed done. This is the reason why we discuss this topic all about here)
Thanks for the inputs in Point 2. Why we care about where the down leg was completed is because the end point will determine where the next wave starts. If the market breaks up 3187, there are multiple candlestick merging actions involved for the destroy of [12], and thus for the up run of [23].
I agree the feeling and experience play an important part in trading. But to determine the end points of a segment line should not rely on them based on Chan's theory.
From 笔-->线段-->中枢 was very logically and strictly defined in his/her theory, which is pending for us to learn and understand.
gucci 发表于 2012-11-6 11:14 PM
I can't agree any more on your Point 1. The key point here is: We can't confirm the done of [12] e ...
"The key point here is: We can't confirm the done of [12] even till today." -- You 're right on this. If It keeps making LH and LL on Monthly chart for future BI, and break down 998, then [12] is not done yet.
the SPX 5min chart is showing up a similar pattern. Since the timeframe is short, we could afford to wait for the breaking of either green dot to get a clear picture.
The rebounce on 9/11 due to DIV was pretty weak, which just barely touched the previous 中枢 [1388.14-1403.03].
Now SP500 formed a bear flag/triangle pattern for consolidation, the chance of breaking down is much higher than up. I'm watching the support around 1325.
This round of down leg might be longer than what we expected.
狗仔卡
发表于 2012-11-6 08:31 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2012-11-6 09:10 AM
)