S&P500周线和日线级别的线段划分20121102

海边玩人

帖一张图，支持一下这个版块的开通，以感谢版主的努力。

下面是截止到2012年11月2号的S&P500的周线和日线级别的线段划分，以供参考和讨论。

结论：美国大盘已经进入日线，甚至是周线级别的下跌。

befriend

鑫森淼焱垚

好图啊.  

KK手记

升势啊.

KK手记

spy weekly near bottom. Up= a midterm up trend soon

hellofriend

现在还不明朗。

bucks

海边玩人

再帖一张图，是上证的，说明一下MACD与股价走势的对比：

图上，可以看到，在股价上下震荡时，MACD黄白线交叉后靠向0轴。然后股价震荡结束（三买、卖点），MACD再次离开0轴。
接下来，股价反转（一买、卖点），对应MACD黄白线再次交叉，然后MACD黄白线穿过0轴（为二买、卖点）。

对比S&P500周线的MACD，可以看到：交叉--靠向0轴--再次交叉，接下来应该是下穿0轴了。所以认为是周线级别的下跌。

silicon_beaver

ethanlinear

KK手记

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-3 02:34 PM
再帖一张图，是上证的，说明一下MACD与股价走势的对比：

图上，可以看到，在股价上下震荡时，MACD黄白线 ...

上证无发无天。99% 股民被套，但他们个个都是TA 专家。
=上证没有TA可言。

bucks

海边玩人 发表于 2012-11-3 02:34 PM
再帖一张图，是上证的，说明一下MACD与股价走势的对比：

图上，可以看到，在股价上下震荡时，MACD黄白线 ...

SPX 周线图确实不太乐观  

austinjoe

Agree -- "结论：美国大盘已经进入日线，甚至是周线级别的下跌。" The SPX drop from 10/05/2012 1471 is the same level as SPX drop from 04/2012 -- 06/2012. It will be at least 2 legs drop, and we only see 1st leg down to 1403 on Oct 26. The 2nd leg could have started on last Friday gap up high 1435.

austinjoe

Anyone who is heavily loaded on long position should be cautious here. If SPX break down 1403 easily next week, bear first target is 1396, next will be 1360 area. The down run could grow up 级别 if bear show enough strength which could end the bull market start  from 03/2009.

heheboy

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-3 10:09 PM
Anyone who is heavily loaded on long position should be cautious here. If SPX break down 1403 easily ...

这有点恐怖，没必要动不动就BULL MARKET FROM 2009 ENDS。。吧
I haven't start bottom fish yet, usually market starts dropping more after i start buying

licai5688

austinjoe

heheboy 发表于 2012-11-3 10:48 PM
这有点恐怖，没必要动不动就BULL MARKET FROM 2009 ENDS。。吧
I haven't start bottom fis ...

Thank you for your inputs.

I think you misunderstood my point here -- the current down run is the same level as drop from 04/2012 spx 1422 -- 06/2012 spx 1266, which is 30F级别 -- 160 points drop. This could NOT end bull marker from 03/2009 on this level. To end the 03/2009 bull market, it has a precondition -- "The down run could grow up 级别 if bear show enough strength which could end the bull market start  from 03/2009."

If the drop from Oct 5, 2012 grow 1 level up, then we will have to face the same level of down run from 05/2011 spx 1370 -- 10/2011 spx 1074,  which is Day级别 -- 300 points drop. If bear could grow another level, it would be week级别, and it's the drop from 07/2007 to 03/2009.

austinjoe

NOTE:  海边玩人 uses a different F0 than my CHAN chart to start his 缠论analysis. I totally agree with him that on "结论：美国大盘已经进入日线级别的下跌" as this is 30F level down run on my CHAN chart. However, I think 海边玩人's word "甚至是周线级别的下跌" -- that depends on future spx 走势, if bear could show enough strength to successfully grow up 级别. The "甚至是" will be a fact not a presume.

heheboy

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-4 07:53 AM
NOTE:  海边玩人 uses a different F0 than my CHAN chart to start his 缠论analysis. I totally agree wi ...

那好吧，俺找机会把LONGS清掉，不过一般俺清掉后，俺会后悔。。。。

gucci

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-3 10:01 PM
Agree -- "结论：美国大盘已经进入日线，甚至是周线级别的下跌。" The SPX drop from 10/05/2012 1471 is t ...

IMO, the 2nd leg was not started yet.
Either the rebounce didn't complete or the low of 1st leg didn't reach (1403).