很久没来了，抛砖引玉share点我的一孔之见

revolver

Copper monthly chart - copper started to surge in 2003 when the demand from both BRIC infrastructure and US housing increased. It topped in 2006 when US housing bubble exploded and then up-down a few rounds with the crisis deepening and central banks easing. In 2008 with the collapse of Lehman the entire market ran into mayhem and copper broke down the major support and dropped below 200. It has since recovered with the 2 legs of QEs however the latest Operation Twist started in Nov 2011 obviously didn't work so well for copper.

Jinan90

revolver

Copper weekly chart - the one most important factor to copper price is the demand of BRIC (essentially China). And you should know what the copper story going to be if you have been monitoring what are right now happening in China, India and Brazil. Technically, copper is at a terminal stage of a 2-heads-2-shoulders pattern. What's the next? One needs to ask if BRIC bubbles can be reflated quickly.

revolver

Copper daily chart - the basic story after copper retested the right shoulder in Feb 12
1. it went thru a 2-months triangle adjustment, had a fake break-up but eventually ended with a break-down.
2. At the beginning of May it rested the previous support line and exhaustively dropped from 384 to 323, a stunning 16% in single month.
3. It seems to me having gone thru a bearish flag within Fibonacci 50% range for 2 months since the beginning of June. It broke down out again last Thursday after ECB meeting however managed to recover some loss on Friday.

revolver

China shadow banking system has begun a serious de-leverage process since last year, which could be the prelude of the collapse of the entire bubble economy. The central government is under huge stress to manage the entire economy through the coming power transition. There will be some minor easing policy change in the next 3 months but I don't expect any major money flooding before the announcement of new politburo standing committee.

revolver

Anyone understands some economics 1-2-3 knows something is wrong. US treasury bond and SPX have been going up side-by-side, how can this happen? Weird that the market risk appetite seems both extremely high and extremely low at the same time.

bucks

源济

revolver

SPX still remains in the up channel started since Apr09, however the speed has been decelerating. The market has priced in a coming QE3, but FED is actually very hesitating. The current price actually just hits the boundary of a possible down channel.

revolver

In the daily SPX chart, another possible bear flag!

大牛Steve

revolver

Treasury bond weekly and daily charts. 30-years bond started the up leg in Apr12 when SPX topped.

小鸟

contr

bond will deflate if eurozone improves? is the bond rally due to money inflow from overseas?

blackrock

熊眼看熊

hunting

silicon_beaver

watch, , ,

greenback

lilitulip

knock

OH MY GOODNESS!!!!!!!

this is the best post I've read on hutong so far at least this year.

I have a completely different approach to analyze the market and I draw similar result of yours.