Canadian housing market will see a 'historic recession' in 2020, reports CMHC

bokchoy888

老蛇， 大崩在即！！！  你还不逃？？？


https://www.kelownanow.com/water ... orts_CMHC/#fs_86684

Home prices and sales are expected to decline substantially this year and through 2021, says a new market outlook report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic could see home prices decline between 9 and 18% or as much as 25% in oil-producing regions by the end of 2020.

According to the CMHC, real estate transactions have already dropped between 19 and 29% from their pre-COVID levels nationally.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1265675929562624009


The ripple effect from the plummeting home sales numbers will also be felt in the home building sector.

Housing starts are expected to see declines of between 50 and 75% this year compared with pre-COVID-19 levels before starting to rebound next year.

Provincially, the CMHC forecasts that Alberta and Saskatchewan will experience a more prolonged downtown due to the additional negative impacts on oil output and employment in that industry.

In BC, experts predict it's likely to see relatively smaller declines in housing starts in 2020 and 2021 than are Quebec and Ontario.

However, Ontario is likely to see larger declines in sales and prices in 2020 than are BC and Quebec.

While the agency admits that there is a lot of uncertainty with when and to what degree the Canadian economy will recover, they have provided forecasts for the real estate sector.

“According to our forecast range, Canada’s housing markets could start to rebound by the end of the first half of 2021, once the unprecedented medical emergency abates sufficiently to allow containment measures to be relaxed, and consumer and business confidence to recover,” reads the report.

To read the full special market outlook report, click here.

Cobra

放狗翻译了一下：




加拿大抵押和住房公司的最新市场前景报告称，预计今年和到2021年房屋价格和销售将大幅下降。

COVID-19大流行的经济影响可能会导致到2020年底产油地区的房价下降9％至18％，甚至下降25％。

根据CMHC的数据，全国的房地产交易量已经比COVID之前的水平下降了19％至29％。

在房屋建筑领域，房屋销售数字暴跌的连锁反应也将感受到。

与COVID-19之前的水平相比，今年的新屋开工率预计将下降50％至75％，然后在明年开始反弹。

CMHC预测，由于对石油产量和该行业的就业产生额外的负面影响，CMHC预测艾伯塔省和萨斯喀彻温省的市区时间将更长。

专家预测，在卑诗省，与魁北克和安大略省相比，2020年和2021年房屋开工量的下降幅度可能相对较小。

但是，到2020年，安大略省的销售和价格下降幅度可能会比不列颠哥伦比亚省和魁北克省更大。

尽管该机构承认加拿大经济何时以及在何种程度上恢复存在很多不确定性，但他们提供了房地产行业的预测。

“根据我们的预测范围，一旦史无前例的医疗紧急事件充分缓解以使遏制措施放松，消费者和企业信心恢复，加拿大的住房市场可能会在2021年上半年开始反弹。”报告。