I find myself repeating the same thing over the last few days. Both smart money and dumb money is extremely bullish recently. Looking into the recent past, we had similar circumstances in Aug 22 and Mar 18. Curiously all of these dates were around monthly opex. The 2 prior cases had different outcomes - the March one saw a 2 week pause before racing to the upside. The Aug case saw another 2 weeks of chops in tiny ranges before a waterfall decline. Given favourable seasonality, I favour another rally - though I would prefer to see a decline of some sort before going long.