Week in review: Breaking out

greenback

Overall, the market actions were consistent with last week's review: not bearish yet in the intermediate term. The most bullish is Russell: an all-time new high close was made on Friday! NIKKEI is coming back extremely strong: we are 50% in NKD long futures with break even stop loss.

This week's weekly bar leads to support that the all time high in May is very likely to be tested again, and an all-time new high is becoming more likely in the next three months.

greenback

On the daily chart, the second bull leg on the daily chart has reached 61.8% Measured Move, except Russell, which reached almost 100%, so at least a consolidation is expected here next week. If a pullback is attempted pushing prices back to the previous consolidation range, then the new high would become less likely.

greenback

On the other hands, bond and equity are finally starting to decouple ... and the bond is not looking good if FED doesn't calm the market in the coming weeks. However, I don't know what else they can say. The market simply don't trust FED by words but only by where it puts its money.

The rising rate may eventually derail the housing market recovery if it rises too much too fast. It also would make the US government fiscal policy a focus again since interest payment would also go up too much too fast.

greenback

The bond daily charts indicate the US Treasuries have not finished this bear leg, probably a few more days' decline before another consolidation phase kicks in.

Bencat

greenback

Finally, Egypt again may ruin every statement in the TA pictures, reversing all trends in equity and bond. Thus risk management is a must in trading/investment. Breakeven stop loss is the minimum: it doesn't hurt in trying until you get on a long-lasting trend.

If you are long in bond fund for income, hedging with shorting ZN/ZB would be a good idea. Of course, with break even stop loss in place. This is also how pros are really trading futures for: to hedge the risk in long-term holdings.

Kami

befriend

Jeff

bucks

dsp

没想到RUT这么牛。

lilitulip

chinesebuffet

好图！ 多， 全！

chinesebuffet

dsp 发表于 2013-7-7 04:20 PM
没想到RUT这么牛。

还没超买！

greenback

dsp 发表于 2013-7-7 05:20 PM
没想到RUT这么牛。

That's why you may want to look at all major indices at least once a week.

hahaa