Where are the gold bugs?

trend

Peter518 发表于 2013-4-15 11:27 AM
Conclusion:  Today could be a bottom for the gold.................

The end....................... ...

I feel the same way, but it still need several days to finish bottom pattern.

Peter518

Gold Meltdown - How Low Can Gold Go?
By Chuck Kowalski, About.com  April 15, 2013

Gold prices are in the midst of a complete meltdown.  Gold traded about $144 lower on Monday, which is on the back of a large selloff late last week.  Gold is now trading at $1,356 an ounce, down 9 percent on the day. Silver prices were in even worse shape. They lost about 11 percent on the day, ending at $23.36 an ounce.

There has been a lot of talk on why prices are down.  The main one centers on the fear that Cyprus will be forced to sell a great deal of their gold holdings and many other struggling European countries may be forced to do the same. Goldman Sachs also recently came out with a bearish call on gold.

Regardless of the catalyst, gold broke major technical support and the market is in severe liquidation mode.  Market moves like this tend to be exaggerated and it is likely there will be an overshoot to the downside.  I don't like to sound like one of the perpetual gold bulls, but I believe the market will move higher in the long run and much of this is panic technical selling.  Many investors and institutions have to liquidate for margin reasons and gold funds like GLD have to liquidate their physical gold positions.

The main thing I look at is the cost of production for gold.  I have seen many figures thrown around, but an average cost of production around the world is about $1,300.  The large miners are a couple hundred dollars below that figure, but this is an average cost.  When commodities break below their cost of production, a low in price is not far behind.  Buying gold near or below $1,300 looks very attractive.

I like buying the ETF (GLD) for a long term trade.  You could get washed out if you trade futures in this environment and trying to pick a bottom.  It is amazing to think that the cost of production has gone from about $300 when the rally began around the turn of the century to where it is now.  The same can be said for corn and soybeans.  I remember around the same timeframe that farmers could turn a profit with corn in the low 2's.  Now, they would be far underwater.  Who says there isn't any inflation?

Peter518

as expected, gold bounced back from yesterday's sell-off.

Peter518

How high it can go?

Peter518

Let's wait and see...

Peter518

STTG:

Peter518

STTG: April 15, 2013

Speaking of carnage the entire commodity space was hammered.  But precious metals were simply a disaster.  Here is a longer term chart of gold to show the damage and then a shorter term chart of silver simply to showcase it in a way more stark to the eye.  With gold you can see two years of gains given back - it is now down to early 2011 levels.   As extreme as volumes were Friday, they were nearly double today.

Peter518

STTG: Silver Chart

Peter518

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Peter518

it could be that now that the Largest Dutch bank defaults on physical gold deliveries to customers we are nearing the end of the paper-rigging game.  It’s relatively easy to pile on the shorts in the paper market.  It’s much more difficult to corner or short the physical market.  Physical demand remains strong, as proven by the experience with the Dutch bank.  If gold really is so “hated”, why are they having trouble delivering it?

Peter518

Peter518 发表于 2013-4-16 02:05 PM
it could be that now that the Largest Dutch bank defaults on physical gold deliveries to customers  ...

It was reported a big Dutch bank announced default on delivering physical gold to its clients some days ago.  Some people speculates that big banks want to crash the spot gold price so that they can cover their short.

Peter518

Well, although there is a rebound in GOLD, it is still very weak, and will certainly need some time to build confidence...............

Peter518

CME Group Raises Margins on Gold, Silver, Natural-Gas Futures


By Jerry A. DiColo

CME Group Inc. CME +0.54% said it will raise the collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday.

The exchange operator said it also will increase margins to trade its benchmark natural-gas futures, also effective Tuesday.

Margins to trade benchmark Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, CME said in a notice emailed late Monday. The margin to trade silver will increase 18%, palladium will increase 14% and platinum will increase 19%. Natural-gas futures will increase 5.6%

狗爹

历史表明，恐慌抛售导致的大跌最后都会回来。

SilentWatcher

是否还有一跌？

Peter518

我的 Bottom FISH call 那么好，怎么没有人给我鼓掌啊？  哈哈哈。。。